“PM Lazarus’ dramatic poll surge,” the Telegraph ’s headline screams. Lazarus with a triple bypass – and faulty valves. Put today’s Newspoll numbers into Bryan Palmer’s election calculator. This is what the “poll surge” would deliver:

You have asked about the likely election outcome if the Coalition won 45 per cent of the polity-wide two-party preferred vote. That would be a uniform swing for the Coalition of minus 7.74 percentage points.

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Under this scenario, the Coalition should win 54 seats. That is not sufficient to form majority government.

It’s just a little more than a third of the 150 member House of Representatives. “Lazarus” loses his seat, along with a whole rag tag band of his colleagues. Here’s the full casualty list – the electorates, their members and what the new margin would be:

Bass, Tasmania, Michael Ferguson (5.11%)

Bennelong, NSW, John Howard (3.61%)

Blair, Queensland, Cameron Thompson (2.05%)

Bonner, Queensland, Ross Vasta (7.23%)

Boothby, SA, Andrew Southcott (2.37%)

Braddon, Tasmania, Mark Baker (6.61%)

Corangamite, Victoria, Stewart McArthur (2.42%)

Cowper, NSW, Luke Hartsuyker (0.99%)

Deakin, Victoria, Phil Barresi (2.77%)

Dobell, NSW, Ken Ticehurst (2.9%)

Eden-Monaro, NSW, Gary Nairn (4.47%)

Flynn, Queensland, new notionally Nationals electorate (0.02%)

Gippsland, Victoria, Peter McGauran (0.04%)

Hasluck, WA, Stuart Henry (5.92%)

Herbert, Queensland, Peter Lindsay (1.5%)

Kalgoorlie, WA, Barry Haase (1.44%)

Kingston, SA, Kym Richardson (7.67%)

La Trobe, Victoria, Jason Wood (1.91%)

Lindsay, NSW, Karen Chijoff (candidate) (4.82%)

Longman, Queensland, Mal Brough (0.99%)

Makin, SA, Bob Day (candidate) (6.81%)

McEwen, Victoria, Fran Bailey (1.32%)

McMillan, Victoria, Russell Broadbent (2.75%)

Moreton, Queensland, Gary Hardgraves (4.91%)

Page, NSW, Chris Gulaptis (candidate) (2.28%)

Parramatta, NSW, notionally Liberal on redistribution (6.91%)

Paterson, NSW, Bob Baldwin (1.42%)

Petrie, Queensland, Teresa Gambaro (0.29%)

Robertson, NSW, Jim Lloyd (0.87%)

Solomon, NT, Dave Tollner (4.93%)

Stirling, WA, Michael Keenan (5.7%)

Sturt, SA, Chris Pyne (0.94%)

Wakefield, SA, David Fawcett (7.07%)

Wentworth, NSW, Malcolm Turnbull (5.23%)

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
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