Eden Monaro got a new MP in 1972. It changed hands in 1975. In 1983. In 1996. You get the drift. That’s why it was let leak yesterday that internal Coalition polling has the government ahead in the electorate.

The Prime Minister told the good news to the party room. Labor candidate Mike Kelly, a former army man, was not getting the 3.3% swing it needs to win the seat from Special Minister of State Gary Nairn. Election analysts like to talk about the median seat – the seat that will be held by whoever forms government, assuming the swing is uniform. Looking at an election pendulum, a swing up to and including the median seat is the bare minimum necessary for government to change hands.

Because of the distorting affects of the independents in the House of Representatives, there’s some argument over which electorate actually is the median seat, but many say it’s Eden Monaro. So here’s our research on it.

The top three electoral issues in Eden Monaro are improving health services and hospitals (40%); reducing the taxes you and your family pay (20%); and fair workplace and employment regulations (20%), according to Roy Morgan Research.

The government’s position on these three issues has eroded substantially since Kevin Rudd became leader of the opposition – particularly on taxes and fair workplaces and employment regulations.

The voting intention figures won’t be read out by the PM – although they will be read closely. They have the Government polling just 38% on a two party preferred basis, with Labor up on 62.