John Howard is now the underdog not only to remain Prime Minister at the federal election but in his own seat of Bennelong as well. The Crikey Election Indicator for Bennelong now puts the probability of Maxine McKew winning Bennelong at 50.4%.

It was only two months ago that Ms McKew was the clear outsider being given only a 25% chance of victory.

The possibility of the Prime Minister losing his own seat will present an unwelcome distraction to Liberal Party campaigning. Mr Howard will be forced to spend more time in his own electorate, and less in other marginal seats, than is desirable.

The Crikey Bennelong Election Indicator

26 Feb

18 Jun

16 Jul

13 Aug

12 Sep

Maxine McKew

34.7%

25.1%

25.0%

36.8%

50.4%

John Howard

60.8%

73.8%

74.4%

62.4%

48.8%

Any other candidate

4.5%

1.1%

0.6%

0.8%

0.8%

That there are plenty of other marginal seats where sitting members need assistance is indicated by the National Crikey Election Indicator. The market now puts the probability of Labor becoming the government at 70.5%.

Date

Coalition

Labor

12-Sep-07

29.5%

70.5%

31-Aug-07

38.8%

61.2%

30-Jul-07

43.0%

57.0%

27-Jun-07

50.0%

50.0%

22-May-07

46.8%

53.2%

23-Apr-07

46.6%

53.4%

20-Mar-07

48.5%

51.5%

19-Feb-07

49.5%

50.5%

07-Dec-06

61.0%

39.0%

09-Oct-06

57.0%

43.0%

16-Aug-06

57.0%

43.0%

The Crikey Election Indicators are based on the markets at Betfair.com.

Peter Fray

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Editor-in-chief of Crikey

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