Voters still seem to be listening to the Prime Minister, the Crikey/Roy Morgan Reactor has found.

The views on a sample of 651 electors – 415 Labor and 236 Liberal supporters – have been measured using an online real time reaction device. Take a dekko at the graphs and watch the video here.


The red line (Labor supporters) and the blue line (Coalition NP supporters) show how polarised the electorate is.

In general, the blue line reacts positively to any Government speeches or messages and the red line reacts positively to any Labor speeches or messages. The Reactor shows both leaders, John Howard and Kevin Rudd, speak well to their supporters.

Overall, it shows the Australian electorate did not respond well to President George W. Bush but, unsurprisingly, Government voters reacted more favourably than Labor voters.

Additional analysis shows APEC has changed the agenda and given John Howard his break. Support for the Howard L-NP Government is at its lowest point ever. A quick sound bite of the PM talking about Iraq does not get a good reaction from the electorate. However, when Howard talks about “climate change” the blue line hits a high and the red line moves out of the negative – ALP supporters’ negativity is neutralised.

The electorate also reacted positively to Mark Vaile and especially Alexander Downer as they voiced their support for John Howard as leader, and praised him for his past performance and endorsed him as the best person to lead the L-NP into the next election.

Kevin Rudd’s impressive Chinese welcome, while appealing to ALP supporters, reinforcing their positive view of their leader, failed to move the blue line. The Government’s supporters reacted negatively.

Indeed, the only non-negative reaction Rudd managed to illicit from Government supporters was his plea – his perhaps ironic plea – to leave the leadership debate alone for the weekend to allow the Prime Minister to focus on the APEC meetings.

Pollster Gary Morgan comments “Although Kevin Rudd did not move the Coalition supporters, it must be remembered that today with the Coalition vote at its lowest level, those now supporting the Government are real die hard Coalition voters – unlikely to be swayed by anything the ALP leader would do. The real issue is of course is how the soft ALP voters’ react.”

The reactor suggests that if his party gets behind him, then the Prime Minister is still in the race.


They may be too busy concentrating on their own seats.