6.30pm. The first result shown on the screen is from a safe Coalition rural seat (such as Calare, Farrer or Riverina.) Antony Green explains that while the computer predicts a coalition retain, there is a 5% swing to Labor, suggesting an interesting election.
6.45pm. In the first results from a marginal seat, the traditional litmus seat of Eden-Monaro has Labor ahead 52-48, and also narrowly ahead in Dobell. McMullen says the party did expect to win the former, and that the latter would be a handy buffer against any possible marginal seat that may not fall. However the first decisive Labor gain comes in the form of Braddon. Antony Green explains that the rural booths have swung decisively back to Labor, and current projections show Labor ahead 54-46. Green expects the Devonport booths will resist the swing but not enough to turn it around.
6.55pm. The neighbouring seat of Bass swings to Labor less decisively, but Labor is still ahead 52-48. At the time of a news break, Labor has won 12 seats, Liberal 7, National 7 and Independent 1.
7.10pm. Kerry O’Brien notes that results that have come in since the news break confirm that Labor is doing well. Bendigo swings to Labor by 2%, Corangamite shows a 4.5% swing to Labor (not quite enough), and Deakin also shows a narrow Liberal lead.
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Is this how polling day will play? Read Adelaide academic Glyn Evans’ election night imaginings on the Crikey election site: the whole John’s Party, hour by hour.