A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (July 25/26) puts Labor 18% ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis: 59 to 41%.
Labor’s vote is up 1.5% since the last telephone Morgan Poll, while government support has dropped by the same amount.
Labor’s primary vote is now 48% (up 0.5%), compared to the government’s 35% (down 2.5%).
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Greens primary support was 9.5% (up 0.5%), while 7.5% of voters indicated they would support other parties or independents (up 1.5%).
While the latest face-to-face Morgan polling found the government had gained some ground in the wake of the Haneef arrest, it appears that leadership controversy has halted its momentum.
Morgan will not assist Peter Costello’s ambitions.
Electors were also asked who they would vote for if Peter Costello or Malcolm Turnbull were Prime Minister. Neither lifted government support beyond the result Howard achieved.
Primary support for the government with Peter Costello as leader was a low 31.5% (down 3.5% from the Howard result), while Labor support rose 4.5% to 52.5%.
The ALP’s two-party preferred lead went from 18% with Howard as leader to 26% with Costello as leader (63% cf. 37%).
Voters responded more warmly to the idea of Prime Minister Turnbull. Government support remained at the same level as Howard (35%), while ALP support increased 1.5% to 49.5%. Turnbull achieved the same two-party preferred lead as Howard (ALP 59%, LNP 41%).
The polling was conducted with 572 Australian electors.