When a bookmaker has Labor favourite to win the election but his prices on individual seats show that Labor would not win enough seats to do so, there should be an opportunity to make a little profit.

Hence today’s publication of an Australian federal election form guide giving an assessment of the chances of Labor and Non-Labor winning each individual seat. Where Sportingbet is quoting a price for an individual electorate it is shown as well.

I have assumed that the Owl’s Election Indicator (based on Betfair) is a correct assessment with the ALP a 55.6% chance of winning. That would result in the ALP winning 77 seats to non-Labor’s 73 seats. The opinion polls are currently showing the ALP winning around 94 seats which points to a winning chance of around 90%! The assessment below is thus quite a conservative one.

Seats with the grey shading are the ones where my assessment is that the bookies market is sufficiently wrong (10% or more) to make a bet worthwhile.

Electorate

Held By

Margin

ALP Chance

Non ALP Chance

ALP Price

Non ALP Price

Adelaide

ALP

1.4

0.855

0.145

$1.30

$4.25

Aston

Lib

-13.2

0.016

0.984

Ballarat

ALP

2.3

0.831

0.169

$1.40

$2.85

Banks

ALP

3.3

0.964

0.036

Barker

Lib

-19.9

0.001

0.999

Barton

ALP

7.6

0.996

0.004

Bass

Lib

-2.7

0.564

0.436

$1.85

$1.93

Batman

ALP

21.4

1.000

0.000

Bendigo

ALP

1.0

0.758

0.242

$1.35

$2.90

Bennelong

Lib

-4.0

0.633

0.367

$3.50

$1.25

Berowra

Lib

-13.1

0.069

0.931

Blair

Lib

-5.7

0.413

0.587

$2.55

$1.65

Blaxland

ALP

15.3

1.000

0.000

Bonner

Lib

-0.6

0.788

0.212

$1.50

$2.45

Boothby

Lib

-5.4

0.382

0.618

$4.00

$1.22

Bowman

Lib

-8.9

0.195

0.805

$3.15

$1.30

Braddon

Lib

-1.2

0.677

0.323

$1.50

$2.15

Bradfield

Lib

-17.5

0.009

0.991

Brand

ALP

4.7

0.869

0.131

$1.35

$3.00

Brisbane

ALP

4.0

0.957

0.043

Bruce

ALP

3.5

0.885

0.115

Calare

ALP

7.9

0.997

0.003

Calwell

ALP

8.2

0.984

0.016

Canberra

ALP

10.1

0.997

0.003

Canning

Lib

-9.6

0.041

0.959

Capricornia

ALP

3.8

0.954

0.046

Casey

Lib

-11.4

0.038

0.962

Charlton

ALP

8.4

0.998

0.002

Chifley

ALP

12.1

1.000

0.000

Chisholm

ALP

2.7

0.851

0.149

$1.35

$3.00

Cook

Lib

-13.7

0.055

0.945

Corangamite

Lib

-5.4

0.281

0.719

$3.40

$1.35

Corio

ALP

5.7

0.949

0.051

Cowan

ALP

0.8

0.633

0.367

$1.70

$2.10

Cowper

Nat

-6.6

0.429

0.571

Cunningham

ALP

11.7

1.000

0.000

Curtin

Lib

-14.7

0.003

0.997

Dawson

Nat

-10.2

0.131

0.869

Deakin

Lib

-5.0

0.309

0.691

Denison

ALP

13.3

1.000

0.000

Dickson

Lib

-9.1

0.184

0.816

$3.50

$1.30

Dobell

Lib

-4.8

0.571

0.429

$2.10

$1.70

Dunkley

Lib

-9.4

0.084

0.916

Eden-Monaro

Lib

-3.3

0.684

0.316

$2.00

$1.80

Fadden

Lib

-15.3

0.016

0.984

Fairfax

Lib

-13.3

0.041

0.959

Farrer

Lib

-15.4

0.026

0.974

Fisher

Lib

-13.0

0.046

0.954

Flinders

Lib

-11.2

0.041

0.959

Flynn

Nat

-7.8

0.261

0.739

$2.90

$1.35

Forde

Lib

-13.0

0.046

0.954

Forrest

Lib

-10.5

0.027

0.973

Fowler

ALP

13.5

1.000

0.000

Franklin

ALP

7.6

0.987

0.013

Fraser

ALP

13.4

1.000

0.000

Fremantle

ALP

7.8

0.959

0.041

Gellibrand

ALP

15.0

1.000

0.000

Gilmore

Lib

-9.5

0.224

0.776

Gippsland

Nat

-7.8

0.145

0.855

Goldstein

Lib

-10.1

0.064

0.936

Gorton

ALP

14.9

1.000

0.000

Grayndler

ALP

21.3

1.000

0.000

Greenway

Lib

-11.0

0.145

0.855

Grey

Lib

-13.9

0.023

0.977

Griffith

ALP

8.5

0.996

0.004

Groom

Lib

-19.0

0.002

0.998

Hasluck

Lib

-1.9

0.421

0.579

$1.87

$1.93

Herbert

Lib

-6.1

0.382

0.618

$2.15

$1.65

Higgins

Lib

-8.8

0.104

0.896

Hindmarsh

ALP

0.1

0.788

0.212

$1.40

$2.85

Hinkler

Nat

-8.8

0.200

0.800

$2.45

$1.50

Holt

ALP

1.6

0.794

0.206

$1.42

$2.80

Hotham

ALP

7.5

0.977

0.023

Hughes

Lib

-8.8

0.268

0.732

Hume

Lib

-12.9

0.075

0.925

Hunter

ALP

11.2

1.000

0.000

Indi

Lib

-16.3

0.003

0.997

Isaacs

ALP

1.5

0.788

0.212

$1.50

$2.45

Jagajaga

ALP

4.5

0.919

0.081

Kalgoorlie

Lib

-6.4

0.136

0.864

Kennedy

Ind

-10.5

0.119

0.881

Kingsford Smith

ALP

8.6

0.998

0.002

Kingston

Lib

-0.1

0.776

0.224

$1.60

$2.35

Kooyong

Lib

-9.6

0.078

0.922

La Trobe

Lib

-5.9

0.248

0.752

Lalor

ALP

8.8

0.988

0.012

Leichhardt

Lib

-10.3

0.127

0.873

Lilley

ALP

5.4

0.977

0.023

Lindsay

Lib

-2.9

0.712

0.288

$1.65

$2.30

Lingiari

ALP

7.7

0.987

0.013

Longman

Lib

-6.6

0.345

0.655

$5.00

$1.16

Lowe

ALP

3.1

0.961

0.039

$1.20

$4.00

Lyne

Nat

-14.1

0.046

0.954

Lyons

ALP

3.7

0.925

0.075

Macarthur

Lib

-11.1

0.140

0.860

Mackellar

Lib

-15.5

0.025

0.975

Macquarie

ALP

0.5

0.893

0.107

$1.70

$2.05

Makin

Lib

-1.0

0.719

0.281

$1.70

$2.10

Mallee

Nat

-24.8

0.000

1.000

Maranoa

Nat

-21.0

0.001

0.999

Maribyrnong

ALP

9.5

0.992

0.008

Mayo

Lib

-13.6

0.026

0.974

McEwen

Lib

-6.5

0.212

0.788

McMillan

Lib

-5.0

0.309

0.691

McPherson

Lib

-14.0

0.030

0.970

Melbourne

ALP

21.2

1.000

0.000

Melbourne Ports

ALP

3.7

0.893

0.107

Menzies

Lib

-10.7

0.051

0.949

Mitchell

Lib

-20.7

0.001

0.999

Moncrieff

Lib

-19.9

0.001

0.999

Moore

Lib

-10.9

0.023

0.977

Moreton

Lib

-2.8

0.641

0.359

$1.60

$2.25

Murray

Lib

-24.1

0.000

1.000

New England

Ind

-14.2

0.045

0.955

Newcastle

ALP

8.7

0.998

0.002

North Sydney

Lib

-10.1

0.189

0.811

O’Connor

Lib

-20.4

0.000

1.000

Oxley

ALP

7.2

0.991

0.009

Page

Nat

-5.5

0.516

0.484

Parkes

Nat

-18.8

0.004

0.996

Parramatta

Lib

-1.1

0.821

0.179

$1.60

$2.35

Paterson

Lib

-6.8

0.413

0.587

$2.85

$1.40

Pearce

Lib

-13.0

0.008

0.992

Perth

ALP

6.8

0.938

0.062

Petrie

Lib

-7.9

0.255

0.745

$3.00

$1.35

Port Adelaide

ALP

13.0

1.000

0.000

Prospect

ALP

6.9

0.994

0.006

Rankin

ALP

3.0

0.936

0.064

Reid

ALP

12.0

1.000

0.000

Richmond

ALP

1.5

0.925

0.075

$1.60

$2.35

Riverina

Nat

-20.7

0.001

0.999

Robertson

Lib

-6.9

0.405

0.595

Ryan

Lib

-10.5

0.119

0.881

Scullin

ALP

14.8

1.000

0.000

Shortland

ALP

9.3

0.999

0.001

Solomon

Lib

-2.9

0.548

0.452

$1.95

$1.85

Stirling

Lib

-2.1

0.405

0.595

$2.00

$1.80

Sturt

Lib

-6.8

0.281

0.719

Swan

ALP

0.1

0.579

0.421

$1.75

$2.05

Sydney

ALP

17.3

1.000

0.000

Tangney

Lib

-11.8

0.015

0.985

Throsby

ALP

13.9

1.000

0.000

Wakefield

Lib

-0.7

0.739

0.261

$1.85

$1.95

Wannon

Lib

-12.4

0.024

0.976

Warringah

Lib

-11.3

0.131

0.869

Watson

ALP

14.6

1.000

0.000

Wentworth

Lib

-2.6

0.732

0.268

$3.75

$1.25

Werriwa

ALP

7.1

0.995

0.005

Wide Bay

Nat

-12.2

0.064

0.936

Wills

ALP

17.0

1.000

0.000

TOTAL

77

73

Note: The swing figures are based on the Mackerras pendulum as is the notional allocation of seats by party where there have been boundary changes and, in the case of Calare the independent incumbent has decided not to stand for re-election.

Peter Fray

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