Everybody knows that if a swing’s on, the Prime Minister could lose Bennelong.

But did you know that on the current polling it would be possible for Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Mark Vaile to lose his 13% plus seat of Lyne?

That’s just one of the results of some polling extrapolation from new wonk on the block Possums Pollytics.

The Possum has put together the quarterly demographic Newspoll and the quarterly marginal and safe seat Newspoll to come up with a rough estimation of how the primary Labor vote would change in a range of government seats.

The optimal word here is rough – it doesn’t take into account the redistributions since the last election, for example – but it’s still fascinating reading.

The exercise suggests 46 government seats could go. As the Possum says, “Clearly this isn’t going to be the case but it highlights the depth of trouble the Coalition is in.”

Blud oath, Norelle. This is the Possum’s list of how the political landscape might be changed by an earthquake, ranked in terms of the likely Labor primary vote:

Makin SA Trish Draper (retiring)
Bonner QLD Ross Vasta
Paterson NSW Bob Baldwin
Wakefield SA David Fawcett
Kingston SA Kym Richardson
Petrie QLD Teresa Gambaro
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd
Greenway NSW Louise Markus
Herbert QLD Peter Lindsay
Longman QLD Mal Brough
Bowman QLD Andrew Laming
Dickson QLD Peter Dutton
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn
Macarthur NSW Pat Farmer
Sturt SA Chris Pyne
Hinkler QLD Paul Neville
Moreton QLD Gary Hardgrave
Cowper NSW Luke Hartsuyker
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly (retiring)
Parkes NSW John Cobb
Hughes NSW Dana Vale
Dobell NSW Ken Ticehurst
Gilmore NSW Jo Gash
Blair QLD Cameron Thompson
Leichhardt QLD Warren Entsch (retiring)
Dawson QLD De-Anne Kelly
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott
Forde QLD Kay Elson
Grey SA Barry Wakelin (retiring)
McEwen VIC Fran Bailey
McMillan VIC Russell Broadbent
McPherson QLD Margaret May
Hume NSW Alby Schultz
Gippsland VIC Peter McGauran
Ryan QLD Michael Johnson
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett (hoping to swap seats)
Page NSW Ian Causley
Cook NSW Bruce Baird (retiring)
Dunkley VIC Bruce Bilson
Corangamite VIC Stewart McArthur
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey
Fisher QLD Peter Slipper
Stirling WA Michael Keenan
Menzies VIC Kevin Andrews
Deakin VIC Phil Barresi
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile


For those of you who can’t get enough of marginals, online bookies Sportingbet Australia have launched a site dedicated to what they’re describing as “the 40 most interesting seats at the federal election”.

If some of the 46 MPs listed above have given up campaigning and want to punt their super, they can log on here.