Everybody knows that if a swing’s on, the Prime Minister could lose Bennelong.
But did you know that on the current polling it would be possible for Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Mark Vaile to lose his 13% plus seat of Lyne?
That’s just one of the results of some polling extrapolation from new wonk on the block Possums Pollytics.
The Possum has put together the quarterly demographic Newspoll and the quarterly marginal and safe seat Newspoll to come up with a rough estimation of how the primary Labor vote would change in a range of government seats.
The optimal word here is rough – it doesn’t take into account the redistributions since the last election, for example – but it’s still fascinating reading.
The exercise suggests 46 government seats could go. As the Possum says, “Clearly this isn’t going to be the case but it highlights the depth of trouble the Coalition is in.”
Blud oath, Norelle. This is the Possum’s list of how the political landscape might be changed by an earthquake, ranked in terms of the likely Labor primary vote:
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|Makin||SA||Trish Draper (retiring)|
|Lindsay||NSW||Jackie Kelly (retiring)|
|Leichhardt||QLD||Warren Entsch (retiring)|
|Grey||SA||Barry Wakelin (retiring)|
|Macquarie||NSW||Kerry Bartlett (hoping to swap seats)|
|Cook||NSW||Bruce Baird (retiring)|
|North Sydney||NSW||Joe Hockey|
For those of you who can’t get enough of marginals, online bookies Sportingbet Australia have launched a site dedicated to what they’re describing as “the 40 most interesting seats at the federal election”.
If some of the 46 MPs listed above have given up campaigning and want to punt their super, they can log on here.