A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week put Labor 15% ahead of the government on a two-party preferred basis 57.5% to 42.5%.

Morgan’s latest face to face polling, taken over the weekends of June 23/24 and June 30/July 1, found that primary support for the government was 36%, compared to 50.5% for the ALP, giving Labor a two-party preferred vote lead of 59% to 41%.

Now, special Morgan qualitative research conducted on July 7/8 has looked at reasons why electors said that they would vote for each party:

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  • A large number of Liberal Party supporters continue to refer to wanting a stable, experienced Government as the main reason for their support;
  • Many electors say they will vote for the Liberal Party because of their belief John Howard is a strong leader with a good track record as a long term leader;
  • A significant proportion of ALP supporters said they intend to vote for Labor because they are dissatisfied with the Industrial Relations Laws;
  • The Government’s involvement in the Iraq War is often given by Labor supporters as a reason for supporting the ALP, and
  • With many ALP supporters there is a strong undercurrent of two important themes: too many “lies” and it’s “time for a change/new leader”.

Labor continues to have a significant lead on a two-party preferred basis, says pollster Gary Morgan, “despite a large number of electors saying they are satisfied with the Howard Government’s policies, pleased with the way the country is being run and don’t want unions running the country.”

“The many electors who mention ‘lies’ and say they want a ‘change’ or that Kevin Rudd should be given a go must be a major concern to John Howard and his team.”

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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