The government’s primary vote has dropped 1% to 36%, in the first face-to-face Morgan Poll since Prime Minister John Howard declared indigenous child abuse in the Northern Territory a “national emergency”. Primary support for the ALP has risen 2.5% to 50.5%.

The two party preferred vote splits Labor’s way, 59 to 41%.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 1%), and other parties and independents 3.5% (down 0.5%).

The PM’s announcement may have been a media agenda setter, but it appears to have failed to strike a chord with voters.

However, while 50% of the electorate think the ALP will win the next federal election – unchanged – Morgan finds than while 37%, an increase of 1.5%, believe the government will be returned.

Soft support also threatens Labor’s position.

Morgan polling shows 51.5% (unchanged) of electors think Australia is heading in the right direction, 31% (down 2.5%) believe the country is heading in the
“wrong direction” and 17.5% (up 2.5%) are undecided.

This means that 20.5% of all electors are soft ALP voters, an increase of 1.5%. Soft ALP voters are defined as those who said Australia is “heading in the right direction” as well as saying they would vote Labor if an election were held today.

The Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of 23/24 June and 30 June/1 July 2007, with an Australia wide cross-section of 1,690 electors.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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