Poll junkies are doing cold turkey. There was no Newspoll this week – and Crikey understands that thanks to the long weekend, there won’t be one next week, either.

Come and get those Chinese rocks. Here’s the Morgan Poll.

The primaries have the Government on 38%, up 0.5%; Labor on 51, up two points; the Greens on 5.5%, down 0.5% and others on 5.5%.

The two party preferred splits Labor’s way 58% to 42%. Labor is up 0.5% and the Government has dropped by the same amount.

At the same time, though, the Labor “Who do you think will win” has gone though the ceiling to reach its highest point since late 2003.

Fifty-nine per cent of voters think Labor will win — up 4%. Less than a third of voters — 28.5%, down 4.5% — think the Government will be returned and 12.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

The figures will be welcome after Monday’s Galaxy poll, and jumped on by analysts and spin-doctors. Pollster Gary Morgan says:

On the weekend after Kevin Rudd made Dean Mighell, the Electrical Trades Union Victorian Secretary, resign from the Labor Party after evidence of heavy handed union tactics, ALP primary support is up 2% to 51%, while support for the Coalition Government is up 0.5% to 38%.

Over the last few months since Kevin Rudd was elected Labor leader the Morgan Poll has shown the ALP would win a Federal election with a landslide despite small ups and downs.

However a lot can happen between now and the Federal election. The electorate is not yet in election mode when we can expect IR, concerns regarding interest rates and economic stability to be the important reasons why electors decide how they vote — many as they walk into a booth.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of 2/3 June, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 909 electors.

You can check the aggregated polls at Bryan Palmer’s website.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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