A five-point jump in Labor’s support in just three days surprised most of the entrants in our first Crikey Newspoll tipping contest.
The consensus forecast was for the two-party-preferred split of Coalition 45% and Labor 55% that the pollster found in his survey taken between 21 and 24 May, not the 60% to 40% found between 25 and 27 May.
The good thing, perhaps, is that we will all learn the importance of the standard deviation in this polling business!
The Crikey team did do much better when it came to assessing the popularity of the two leaders and the answer to the question about the better prime minister. The forecast for Howard was spot on, as can be seen from the following table:
And our first winner is Monty Mandelburgh, who will receive a dozen bottles of wine for his great effort in being the first Crikey Newspoll winner.