It happens in many forms of life – there is safety in sticking with the herd.

They used to say of IT managers that no one ever got sacked for buying IBM even if the computer system turned out to be a disaster. Fund managers retreat into the safety of index funds so they can never be judged as worse than the market. And journalists avoid being the only one to say that Labor looks like winning an election. Better to be proved wrong saying it will be a close run thing than to risk looking ridiculous when John Howard gets returned again.

And so it is at the moment when opinion poll after opinion poll shows Kevin Rudd a clear cut favourite to become Prime Minister. The search is always on to find a reason why the polls are wrong. There are so many ifs, buts and maybes trotted out by we political pundits that an ordinary reader must wonder why newspapers bother to publish such unhelpful things as Newspoll at all.

So here goes. Only a miracle will save the Howard Government from losing the next election. The trend of the Newspoll is clear as the graph of results comparing this year with the last election year of 2004 shows. Odds of $1.90 for $1 are a steal. Get in to this great value with your ears back.

And remember to call me a complete fool when John Howard wins the next election.