The market response to the 2007 budget will surely please the Government. No – not the foreign exchange and money markets nor the stock exchange. The market indicator that politicians watch these days is the Crikey Election Indicator based on the action at the Betfair betting exchange.

At 1am this morning the probability of a Government victory as assessed by this political market had moved a couple of percentage points in the Government’s favour. 

The ALP is now assessed as having a 51.3% chance of winning – down from 53.4% a fortnight ago – with the Government now at 48.7% – up 2.1 percentage points.

The Crikey Election Indicator

ALP

Coalition

16-Aug-06

43%

57%

9-Oct-06

43%

57%

7-Dec-06

39%

61%

12-Dec-06

41%

59%

2-Feb-07

46%

54%

7-Feb-07

49%

51%

19-Feb-07

50.5%

49.5%

26-Feb-07

50.8%

49.2%

20-Mar-07

51.5%

48.5%

23-Apr-07

53.4%

46.6%

9-May-07

51.3%

48.7%

Peter Fray

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Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey

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