Three key trends detected by special Roy Morgan qualitative research conducted during April seem crucial to the election outcome: the Liberal Party’s economic management skills; the negative effect of the industrial relations laws and general disillusionment with John Howard and his Liberal Government.

How that last mood plays out will be the clincher.

Pollster Gary Morgan says:

Among Liberal supporters John Howard is seen as an experienced and successful politician who leads a party with far superior economic credentials.

Supporters of Labor continue to cite negative effects of the industrial relations reforms and a general disillusionment with the Coalition Government.

This special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted prior to the ALP’s national conference in Sydney where Kevin Rudd outlined his alternative to the WorkChoices legislation. Whether electors accept the reinstatement of union power, or not, will play a key role in deciding if Kevin Rudd is Australia’s next Prime Minister.

The Liberal Party’s superior economic management skills and John Howard’s popularity again proves to be a major attraction for Liberal Party supporters.

The most prevalent reason Labor supporters gave for their support of the party was the negative effect of the industrial relations laws.

A significant proportion of ALP supporters said they intend to vote for Labor because of general disillusionment with John Howard and his Liberal Government.
How big is this turn off factor? Will the decline in the government’s support be arrested by the Budget?

The last six months have already provided plenty of political drama.

The election campaign will be a beauty.

Peter Fray

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Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey