The Crikey federal election indicator, based on prices from the three major Australian internet bookmakers, has swung Labor’s way a little over the summer holidays. With Federal Parliament to resume next week, Kevin Rudd’s team is given a 46% chance of winning the election later this year. The Coalition, which back in December was rated a 61% chance, is now rated at 54%.

Recent Movements in the Crikey Indicator

ALP

Coalition

16-Aug-06

43%

57%

9-Oct-06

43%

57%

7-Dec-06

39%

61%

12-Dec-06

41%

59%

2-Feb-07

46%

54%

The Crikey indicator adjusts the prices of Centrebet, Sportingbet and IASBet to take out the bookmakers’ profit margin to give a percentage chance. If you want to have a bet, the best prices available this morning were $2.10 for a $1 on Labor at Sportingbet and $1.80 for the Coalition.

Meanwhile, the latest Federal Morgan Poll , released this morning, says support for Coalition is up 2.5%, ALP support down 3.5%. Two-party preferred: ALP 4.5%, L-NP 45.5%.

Peter Fray

Get your first 12 weeks of Crikey for $12.

Without subscribers, Crikey can’t do what it does. Fortunately, our support base is growing.

Every day, Crikey aims to bring new and challenging insights into politics, business, national affairs, media and society. We lift up the rocks that other news media largely ignore. Without your support, more of those rocks – and the secrets beneath them — will remain lodged in the dirt.

Join today and get your first 12 weeks of Crikey for just $12.

 

Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey

JOIN NOW