The Crikey federal election indicator, based on prices from the three major Australian internet bookmakers, has swung Labor’s way a little over the summer holidays. With Federal Parliament to resume next week, Kevin Rudd’s team is given a 46% chance of winning the election later this year. The Coalition, which back in December was rated a 61% chance, is now rated at 54%.

Recent Movements in the Crikey Indicator

ALP

Coalition

16-Aug-06

43%

57%

9-Oct-06

43%

57%

7-Dec-06

39%

61%

12-Dec-06

41%

59%

2-Feb-07

46%

54%

The Crikey indicator adjusts the prices of Centrebet, Sportingbet and IASBet to take out the bookmakers’ profit margin to give a percentage chance. If you want to have a bet, the best prices available this morning were $2.10 for a $1 on Labor at Sportingbet and $1.80 for the Coalition.

Meanwhile, the latest Federal Morgan Poll , released this morning, says support for Coalition is up 2.5%, ALP support down 3.5%. Two-party preferred: ALP 4.5%, L-NP 45.5%.

Peter Fray

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Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey

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