Primary support for the ALP has dropped marginally by two per cent to 47 per cent in the latest Morgan Poll, but the party still maintains a commanding lead.

Morgan has Labor’s primary vote on 47 per cent – up 9.4 per cent from the 2004 election – compared to 36.5 per cent for the Coalition – down 9.9 per cent from 2004.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two party preferred vote splits 57.5 per cent in favour of the ALP and 42.5 per cent the Coalition’s way.

On the important question of who the electorate think will win the next federal election, 48 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) think the LNP will win while 38.5 per cent (down 2.5) back the ALP and 13.5 per cent (unchanged) can’t say.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 8 per cent (up 1 per cent), Family First 2 per cent (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5 per cent (down 1 per cent), One Nation 1.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent), while other parties and independents scored 3.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent).

While Labor has dropped, pollster Gary Morgan points out: “During 2006, while Kim Beazley was Labor Leader, the highest proportion of electors that said the ALP would win the 2007 Federal election was 30 per cent.”

Peter Fray

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