Primary support for the ALP leapt 9% in the week following Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership, according to the latest Morgan Poll.

Labor’s primary support has risen to 50% (up 12.4% since the 2004 election), while primary support for the Coalition dropped 7% to 34.5% (down 11.9% from 2004).

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, Labor leads the two-party preferred vote 59 to 41%.

46% of respondents – down 12 – think the Coalition will win the next federal election, 39.5% – up 11 – think Labor win and 14.5% (up one point)) can’t say.

Pollster Gary Morgan says:

Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have changed the electoral scene, John Howard and his L-NP team now have a fight on their hands.

The last Morgan Poll to have Labor’s primary vote on 50% was taken between January 25 and February 1 1986.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 7% (down two), Family First 2.5% (up one), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1%(unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%).

Peter Fray

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