The Crikey Victorian Election tipping contest presents our readers with a unique opportunity to prove that they are the real political experts and win a dozen of the especially bottled Bragging Rights Red to boot. What is needed is an assessment of Labor’s chance of winning every one of the 88 Legislative Assembly seats being contested tomorrow.

Entries in to the same kind of contest based on the Queensland election earlier this year proved a reliable guide to the final result with contestants getting within one seat of Labor’s final tally. The collective wisdom about tomorrow is for Labor to win 52 seats.

It seems that I have been more impressed with the Liberal Party campaign than most observers with my entry giving a predicted Labor win of 48 seats. My colleague Christian Kerr puts the likely figure at 45.

For your opportunity to humiliate us both with your superior skill, get your entry in here before midnight tonight.

The form guide follows:

Seat

Contest

Kerr

Farmer

Summary
(swing needed to
change hands)

Albert Park

91.31

75

99

Labor seat
(12.51% to Lib/Nat)

Altona

92.72

75

100

Labor seat
(24.70% to Lib/Natl)

Ballarat East

77.33

50

81

Labor seat
(7.62% to Lib/Nat)

Ballarat West

78.56

50

91

Labor seat
(9.01% to Lib/Nat)

Bass

25.67

25

3

Liberal seat
(0.65% to Labor)

Bayswater

52.26

50

23

Labor seat
(2.75% to Lib/Nat)

Bellarine

75.44

50

86

Labor seat
(8.26% to Lib/Nat)

Benalla

20.18

25

1

National Party seat
(1.98% to Labor)

Benambra

15.85

25

0

Liberal seat
(4.04% to Labor)

Bendigo East

83.51

75

100

Labor seat
(12.97% to Lib/Nat)

Bendigo West

85.41

75

100

Labor seat
(15.95% to Lib/Nat)

Bentleigh

82.64

50

47

Labor seat
(4.75% to Lib/Nat)

Box Hill

23.49

25

2

Liberal seat
(1.10% to Labor)

Brighton

15.51

25

0

Liberal seat
(7.42% to Labor)

Broadmeadows

92.13

75

100

Labor seat
(30.79% to Lib/Nat)

Brunswick

82.74

50

92

Labor seat
(28.05% to Lib/Nat);
On an ALP vs Green
basis the swing
required is 9.30%
to the Greens

Bulleen

22.28

25

1

Liberal seat
(2.65% to Labor)

Bundoora

87.74

75

100

Labor seat
(17.58% to Lib/Nat)

Burwood

64.28

50

51

Labor seat
(5.10% to Lib/Nat)

Carrum

81.49

75

99

Labor seat
(12.17% to Lib/Nat)

Caulfield

16.62

25

1

Liberal seat
(2.26% to Labor)

Clayton

87.41

75

100

Labor seat
(23.85% to Lib/Nat)

Cranbourne

78.67

75

97

Labor seat
(10.80% to Lib/Nat)

Dandenong

90.54

75

100

Labor seat
(20.32% to Lib/Nat)

Derrimut

90.97

75

100

Labor seat
(27.31% to Lib/Nat)

Doncaster

24.13

25

3

Liberal seat
(0.78% to Labor)

Eltham

65.41

50

47

Labor seat
(4.80% to Lib/Nat)

Essendon

89.54

75

100

Labor seat
(15.93% to Lib/Nat)

Evelyn

34.95

50

6

Labor seat
(0.34% to Lib/Nat)

Ferntree Gully

44.26

50

18

Labor seat
(2.29% to Lib/Nat)

Footscray

91.15

75

100

Labor seat
(24.91% to Lib/Nat)

Forest Hill

63.69

50

60

Labor seat
(5.79% to Lib/Nat)

Frankston

73.92

50

60

Labor seat
(5.78% to Lib/Nat)

Geelong

78.44

50

85

Labor seat
(8.11% to Lib/Nat)

Gembrook

34.41

50

13

Labor seat
(1.59% to Lib/Nat)

Gippsland
East

16.05

25

0

Independent seat
(10.19% to Labor)

Gippsland
South

16.41

25

0

National Party seat
(10.86% to Labor)

Hastings

32.87

50

8

Labor seat
(0.86% to Lib/Nat)

Hawthorn

12.26

25

0

Liberal seat
(5.89% to Labor)

Ivanhoe

76.08

75

99

Labor seat
(12.50% to Lib/Nat)

Keilor

89.31

75

100

Labor seat
(18.05% to Lib/Nat)

Kew

11.85

25

0

Liberal seat
(5.99% to Labor)

Kilsyth

45.74

50

17

Labor seat
(2.10% to Lib/Nat)

Kororoit

87.87

75

100

Labor seat
(27.06% to Lib/Nat)

Lara

86.10

75

100

Labor seat
(22.35% to Lib/Nat)

Lowan

14.46

25

0

National Party seat
(17.09% to Labor)

Lyndhurst

86.79

75

100

Labor seat
(25.09% to Lib/Nat)

Macedon

75.36

50

92

Labor seat
(9.26% to Lib/Nat)

Malvern

16.79

25

0

Liberal seat
(10.19% to Labor)

Melbourne

51.87

50

15

Labor seat
(22.18% to Lib/Nat);
On an ALP vs Green
basis the swing
required is 1.93%
to the Greens

Melton

90.23

75

100

Labor seat
(15.33% to Lib/Nat)

Mildura

12.28

25

0

Independent seat
(6.72% to Labor)

Mill Park

88.82

75

100

Labor seat
(26.79% to Lib/Nat)

Mitcham

69.74

50

82

Labor seat
(7.69% to Lib/Nat)

Monbulk

76.05

50

86

Labor seat
(8.27% to Lib/Nat)

Mordialloc

71.05

50

44

Labor seat
(4.54% to Lib/Nat)

Mornington

22.72

25

1

Liberal seat
(1.83% to Labor)

Morwell

69.87

50

48

Labor seat
(4.87% to Lib/Nat)

Mount
Waverley

43.10

50

18

Labor seat
(2.30% to Lib/Nat)

Mulgrave

84.79

75

100

Labor seat
(16.23% to Lib/Nat)

Murray Valley

11.49

25

0

Liberal seat
(13.90% to Labor)

Narracan

71.95

50

73

Labor seat
(6.83% to Lib/Nat)

Narre Warren
North

79.08

50

94

Labor seat
(9.71% to Lib/Nat)

Narre Warren
South

82.44

75

99

Labor seat
(12.61% to Lib/Nat)

Nepean

23.41

25

4

Liberal seat
(0.18% to Labor)

Niddrie

87.18

75

100

Labor seat
(16.61% to Lib/Nat)

Northcote

80.38

50

83

Labor seat
(28.33% to Lib/Nat);
On an ALP vs Green
basis the swing
required is 7.91%
to the Greens

Oakleigh

85.64

75

100

Labor seat
(15.22% to Lib/Nat)

Pascoe Vale

90.82

75

100

Labor seat
(24.21% to Lib/Nat)

Polwarth

10.95

25

0

Liberal seat
(9.54% to Labor)

Prahran

65.95

50

42

Labor seat
(4.43% to Lib/Nat)

Preston

89.97

75

100

Labor seat
(25.76% to Lib/Nat)

Richmond

64.08

50

26

Labor seat
(25.56% to Lib/Nat);
On an ALP vs Green
basis the swing
required is 3.10%
to the Greens

Ripon

72.28

50

79

Labor seat
(7.44% to Lib/Nat)

Rodney

15.44

25

0

National Party seat
(16.43% to Labor)

Sandringham

17.00

25

0

Liberal seat
(3.04% to Labor)

Scoresby

18.74

25

0

Liberal seat
(3.33% to Labor)

Seymour

78.31

50

93

Labor seat
(9.50% to Lib/Nat)

Shepparton

14.85

25

0

National Party seat
(15.14% to Labor)

South Barwon

59.74

50

50

Labor seat
(5.02% to Lib/Nat)

South-west
Coast

28.13

25

3

Liberal seat
(0.75% to Labor)

Swan Hill

13.31

25

0

National Party seat
(14.16% to Labor)

Tarneit

84.10

75

100

Labor seat
(17.41% to Lib/Nat)

Thomastown

92.77

75

100

Labor seat
(31.75% to Lib/Nat)

Warrandyte

19.56

25

0

Liberal seat
(6.36% to Labor)

Williamstown

90.62

75

100

Labor seat
(25.72% to Lib/Nat)

Yan Yean

80.21

50

93

Labor seat
(9.54% to Lib/Nat)

Yuroke

83.23

75

100

Labor seat
(22.89% to Lib/Nat)

LABOR SEATS

52

45

48

Peter Fray

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