There’s a new Morgan poll out on Senate voting intentions – and it’s creating a lot of interest, particularly from the Australian Democrats.

The results break down like this:

Support for the L-NP Coalition in the Senate is down 8.7% since the 2004 Federal Senate election from 44.7% to 36%, while ALP support is up 4% from 35% to 39%, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Support for the Greens is up 2.8% from 7.7% to 10.5%.

Among the minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is up 3.4% to 5.5%, Family First 2.5% (up 0.7%), One Nation 1% (down 0.7%), and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates is down 1.5% to 5.5%.

Democrat leader Lyn Allison has had a media release out this morning on the back of the poll claiming her party is still the third force in Australian politics. She calls it “a welcome boost for the party”.

Morgan’s state by state findings give the Dems some hope:

  • In New South Wales: ALP 40.5%, L-NP 35.5%, Greens 8.5%, Democrats 5%, Family First 2%, One Nation 1%, Other 7.5%. If a half-Senate election were to be held now, this would result in two NSW ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Greens Senator, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences.
  • In Victoria: ALP 38.5%, L-NP 35.5%, Greens 13%, Democrats 5.5%, Family First 2.5%, One Nation 0.5%, Other 4.5%. This would result in two Victorian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Greens Senator, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences.
  • In Queensland: ALP 39%, Liberal 30%, Greens 9%, Nationals 7%, Democrats 5.5%, Family First 2.5%, One Nation 1.5%, Other 5.5%. This would result in two Queensland ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Nationals Senator, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences.
  • In South Australia: ALP 37%, L-NP 35%, Democrats 9%, Greens 8%, Family First 4.5%, One Nation 0.5%, Other 6%. This would result in two South Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and two positions from either the Greens, Democrats and/or Family First determined by the allocation of preferences.
  • In Western Australia: ALP 37.5%, Liberal 37%, Greens 11.5%, Democrats 4.5%, Nationals 2.5%, One Nation 1.5%, Family First 1%, Other 4.5%. This would result in two Western Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Greens Senator, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences.
  • In Tasmania: ALP 39%, Liberal 32.5%, Greens 17.5%, Family First 3%, Democrats 0.5%, Other 7.5%. This would result in two Tasmanian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, one Greens Senator, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences.

If these sort of figures are repeated at the election next year – and if the preferences flow the right way – the Democrats could be within reach of a seat in NSW and South Australian and maybe Queensland too. Could be…

Peter Fray

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