The theory tells us that a collection of predictions from many people will give a better answer than a single prediction, which gives a little bit of seriousness to the fun competition where Crikey readers are predicting the result of the Queensland State election.

The Crikey contest requires people to predict the probability of a Labor victory in each of the 89 seats allocating a figure of 100 for what they think will be a certain Labor win and 0 when they think Labor has no chance.

Plenty of keen readers have entered already since the contest was unveiled in Friday’s email, and the early polling suggests that Labor will win 56 of the 89 seats. That compares with the 60 seats that Labor currently holds.

Details of the contest can be found on the glug website which is providing a fine wine selection for the winner to celebrate with. There are free Crikey subscriptions on offer too, although the real prize will be the bragging rights that will go with the title of “Australia’s Champion Psephologist”.

Entries close at midnight on Friday.

The early Crikey contest polling gives Labor the following percentage chance of victory in the 89 individual seats:

Albert 91%; Algester 93%, Ashgrove 91%, Aspley 91%, Barron River 65%, Beaudesert 16%, Brisbane Central 95%, Broadwater 65%, Bulimba 92%, Bundaberg 62%, Bundamba 93%, Burdekin 26%, Burleigh 74%, Burnett 19%, Cairns 82%, Callide 10%, Caloundra 39%, Capalaba 93%, Charters Towers 22%, Chatsworth 69%, Clayfield 54%, Cleveland 82%, Cook 88%, Cunningham 13%, Currumbin 48%, Darling Downs 10%, Everton 92%, Ferny Grove 94%, Fitzroy 91%, Gaven 39%, Gladstone 19%, Glass House 83%, Greenslopes 91%, Gregory 9%, Gympie 13%, Hervey Bay 75%, Hinchinbrook 23%, Inala 95%, Indooroopilly 62%, Ipswich 94%, Ipswich West 87%, Kallangur 91%, Kawana 54%, Keppel 73%, Kurwongbah 91%, Lockyer 14%, Logan 93%, Lytton 96%, Mackay 91%, Mansfield 88%, Maroochydore 19%, Maryborough 11%, Mirani 8%, Moggill 20%, Mount Coottha 91%, Mount Gravatt 91%, Mount Isa 89%, Mount Ommaney 87%, Mudgeeraba 52%, Mulgrave 81%, Mundingburra 85%, Murrumba 91%, Nanango 9%, Nicklin 9%, Noosa 38%, Nudgee 91%, Pumicestone 78%, Redcliffe 56%, Redlands 89%, Robina 22%, Rockhampton 93%, Sandgate 90%, South Brisbane 95%, Southern Downs 11%, Southport 80%, Springwood 88%, Stafford 93%, Stretton 91%, Surfers Paradise 13%, Tablelands 9%, Thuringowa 86%, Toowoomba North 66%, Toowoomba South 13%, Townsville 86%, Warrego 13%, Waterford 92%, Whitsunday 84%, Woodridge 95%, Yeerongpilly 92%.

Peter Fray

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Editor-in-chief of Crikey

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