The Olivier Internet Job Index
jumped 6.4 % in March – all 21 industry sectors grew with significant growth in
IT&T, Sales & Marketing and Trades & Services, following the strong
rise in ABS job vacancies in the three months to February reported last
week.

The resource boom keeps on keeping
on, though surely it’s ready for a good breather. Kevin Andrusiak for The
Oz
: “The Australian stock market yesterday cemented the
strongest rally in its 100-year history, clocking up 12 consecutive quarters of
growth to eclipse its rise before the 1987 crash. The All Ordinaries index closed
the March quarter at a record high of 5087.2 points, taking gains since the eve
of the Iraq war three years ago to 90%, or $550 billion in the value of
listed companies.”

As the new quarter opens, the big
question is for how long can the current global commodities boom keep on keeping
on?

The Chinese economy continues to
boom. The US economy is doing well, although
fear of rising interest rates has caused some market wobbles last week.
Japan and Euroland are recovering.
The prospect is for continued strong global growth with rising interest
rates.

These economic figures all point
to continuing economic prosperity, but Henry is still seeking a more realistic
estimate of unemployment in Australia, convinced that the ABS rate of 5.2% is
dramatically low.

The March Quarter Roy Morgan
Unemployment
estimate, released today, reports an increase in unemployment
of 0.2% to 8%, up from 7.8% in the December 2005 Quarter. This figure is up
0.6% from the same time last year (7.4%).

An
estimated 847,000 Australians were looking for work in the March 2006 Quarter –
up 46,000 since the December 2005 Quarter. The number of Australians seeking
full-time employment in the March Quarter was 419,000 (unchanged since December)
while 427,000 Australians (up 44,000) were seeking part-time
work.

The Roy
Morgan unemployment estimate provides a more genuine picture of the unemployment
level by including those who have become disenchanted with the process of
looking for a job and so are not regularly seeking employment – not because they
don’t want a job but because they have given up hope of finding one.

Look for Henry’s article on the
Reserve Bank in The Oz tomorrow morning. And read more at Henry Thornton.

Disclosure: Roy Morgan Research provides Henry Thornton a feed of
surveys as well as clerical, analytical and research
support.

Peter Fray

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