Wonks, are we good to you or what? We have not one, not two, not three,
not four but five – count ‘em – polls fresh from Roy Morgan
Research for you today.

First, South Australia – a fortnight short of election day:

In January – February, primary support for the ALP in South
Australia rose 1.5% to 50.5%, while support for the Liberal Party also
rose 1% to 33%.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they
were at the 2002 South Australian election ALP support is 59.5% with
L-NP support 40.5% (both unchanged since August 2005). If a South
Australian State election had been held in January – February, the ALP
would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties support for the Greens was 4.5% (up 0.5%),
Family First 3.5% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 3% (down 1%), One
Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent 5% (up 0.5%).

New South Wales Premier Morris Iemma might have called Cross City Tunnel CEO Graham Mulligan a “f*ckwit” – but voters know which bunch of f*ckwits signed the contract in the first place. Still, NSW Labor isn’t entirely f*cked:

During February, primary support for the NSW ALP State
Government fell sharply to 39% (down 4%) while L-NP support was 41% (up
4.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they
were at the 2003 State Election, the ALP, is down 4% to 51%, with a
slender 2% lead over the L-NP 49%, (up 4%). If a NSW State Election had
been held during February, the election result would have been too
close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds.


Not so lucky are the division-besetVictorian Libs (Kim Beazley please note):

As Liberal leadership pretender Ted Baillieu confirms he
will not challenge Robert Doyle for the leadership of the Party,
primary support for the Victorian ALP Government was unchanged on 48%
while primary support for the Liberal Party fell 1.5% to 32%.

On a two-party preferred basis (preferences distributed as they were at
the 2002 State Election) ALP support rose 1.5% from January to 60.5%, a
significant lead of 21% over the L-NP (39.5%). If a Victorian State
Election had been held in February, the ALP would have won easily, the
latest Morgan Poll finds.

If I were a Carpenter and you were my lady… Well, it looks as if the new Western Australian premier is enjoying a honeymoon period. (You could ask opposition leader Matt Birney where he thought the Pope honeymooned with his partner):

During January – February, support for the ALP in Western
Australia was up 4.5% to 49.5% while L-NP support dropped slightly to
37.5% (down 0.5%), the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they
were in the February State election, ALP support was 56.5% (up 2%), a
13% lead over the L-NP (43.5%). If a Western Australian State election
had been held in January – February, the ALP would have won easily.

And while Peter Beattie’s looking pretty poorly, he should still pull through. Particularly if he goes to a hospital in another state:

During January – February, primary support for the
Queensland Labor Government fell slightly (1%) to 48.5%, while support
for the L-NP Coalition fell 0.5% to 34% (Liberals – 23%, up 0.5%,
Nationals – 11%, down 1%).

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they
were at the 2004 State election, support for the ALP was down 0.5% to
57%, while L-NP support was 43% (up 0.5%). If a Queensland State
election had been held in January – February Labor would have won
easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Peter Fray

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