The Millionaire Factory has done it again
with the Dyno Nobel IPO, picking up hundreds of millions of dollars in a quick buy’n’flick and
keeping its partners very happy in the process.

The commentariat is pretty impressed, none
more so than the AFR‘s Chanticleer: “As far as old-fashioned merchant banking deals
go, the one between Macquarie Bank and Dyno Nobel must stand as one of the
industry’s greatest, netting the bank well in excess of $150 million in profits
plus fees, while helping long-term client Orica and its co-investors.” The
SMH
‘s Elizabeth Knight is almost as delighted:
“Great numbers – and growth to boot”.

But an anonymous Crikey subscriber has
found something to be a little concerned about in the face of so much
praise. Our subscriber suggests the Dyno Nobel IPO has been brought forward as
the bank needs to book some of the profits for the transaction before financial
year’s end.

“There are arguments among the investment
bankers as to when to time the float since there are a number of incentives
that are driving the deal, as opposed to making money for shareholders,” writes
our informant.

Of more concern for the shareholder
subscriber is a forecast fall in the bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio at a time when
the market has been so strong and when investment and retail banks globally
have enjoyed fairly stable capital adequacy ratios.

On top of Alan Kohler’s harsh Smage column yesterday, the MacBankers needed some good news, but I’m aware of one major US
institutional analyst who is also concerned about the depth of Macquarie’s
capital backing should one of the bank’s mega-deals hit an iceberg and result
in an investor class action. This analyst believes Macquarie could have very
serious problems if such an X factor strikes.

With every platinum lining, you can
generally still find a cloud.

Peter Fray

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