Some interesting analysis of one of the key Victorian Labor
preselection battlegrounds has come Crikey’s way – Gavan O’Connor’s
electorate of Corio. The information is membership data – a little old, but illustrative, none the less

Eighteen 18 months ago Corio had 566 ALP members. The vast majority of
these – 376 – belonged to the cheapest category of membership, the
concessional student and pensioner rate. A further 96 members belong to
the second lowest membership fee grouping.

A big membership on a concessional rate is often a sure sign of a
stack. Have a look at how some the branches broke down in Corio:

Branches On concessional rates Total members
Bellarine ALP Branch 30, 6 42
Central ALP Branch 14, 2 24
Geelong North ALP Branch 178, 23 217
Geelong West ALP Branch 91, 33 181
Lara ALP Branch 63, 32 104
Total 376, 96 568

Now, there’s a uni in Geelong – but do half its students live in
Geelong North? Does ACTU assistant secretary and challenger Richard
Marles just have a lot of friends there?

Marles, our sources say, is strongest in the Geelong North and West
branches. Our sources say that these two have had the biggest increases
in membership in the last two years.

It would be interesting to see how these trends are reflected elsewhere in Victoria.