If a federal election had been held in mid-October, who would have won? The ALP with a “landslide,” according to the latest Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends face-to-face with 1990 voters.

In fact, if preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 federal election, the “two-party” preferred vote would be 57% ALP and 43% Coalition. That’s the best result for the ALP since early June 2001 – or put another way, it’s the highest level for Beazley since the winter before Tampa.

Further boosting Beazley’s reasons to smile, on the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal Election, 50% picked the Coalition (down 11% in two weeks), while 36.5% (up 9%) think the ALP will win.

Why the shift? It’s hard to ignore the impact of the ongoing industrial relations tussle, says Gary Morgan, given extra prominence over the past fortnight due to rallies across 300 Australian cities which were attended by some 500,000 Australians, according to the ACTU.