A Canberra sceptic responds to Antony Green:

I read Antony’s hypothesis with interest. I think he meant Farrer
rather than Murray in piece though, but the rest was quite solid. However
whilst the precedents of previous state redistributions (such as the recent
abolition of Lachlan and the creation of Wollondilly) are instructive they do
not reflect some of the greater complexities at work.

Whilst the later enrolment figures and projections will have an impact,
I think it is unlikely that another country seat will disappear in NSW. Whilst
Bennelong, Macarthur, are of interest, I suggest that it is more likely an
inner south western suburbs seat will disappear. I venture Reid, as it is most
under quota (at the time of the 2004 election by nearly 10,000 voters). The
loss of an ALP seat will address the good result of the last redistribution in
NSW, where the ALP notionally lost Paterson, but notionally gained Macarthur and

Calare may well move further east into the Blue Mountains, which is
what the Coalition suggested previously, and it won’t unduly affect Macquarie
(other than to make it safer for the Liberal Party) or Lindsay. Macarthur will
likely move south and west and become better for the Liberal Party too. As for
Parramatta, it may become a better proposition for the ALP by taking in voters
from Reid, and Greenway may become better for the Liberal Party by gains from

The spreadsheet below has grouped the electorates by regions and the
collective variance shown. The odds favour a seat such as Reid disappearing
rather than Riverina. The 10 inner southern electorates are collectively about
half of a quota short, 43,627. The six western NSW electorates 16,654, or about
one sixth of a quota, which the western half of Calare would more than
adequately meet.


Variation from 2004 quota for 49 seats Region Region total variance
Charlton -2,802 Hunter
Dobell -2,690 Hunter
Hunter 647 Hunter
Newcastle 2,011 Hunter
Robertson -2,824 Hunter
Shortland -261 Hunter -5921
Cowper -3,306 North Coast
Lyne 3,833 North Coast
Page -3,330 North Coast
Paterson -292 North Coast
Richmond -1,988 North Coast -3096
Bennelong -2,129 North Sydney
Berowra -1,271 North Sydney
Bradfield 1,672 North Sydney
Mackellar -1,158 North Sydney
North Sydney 734 North Sydney
Warringah -3,002 North Sydney -5156
Eden-Monaro 4,183 South Coast
Gilmore -729 South Coast
Hume 1,231 South Coast
Macarthur -4,064 South Coast 620
Cunningham -6,505 Illawarra
Throsby -1,031 Illawarra -7537
Banks -5,057 South Sydney
Barton -3,754 South Sydney
Blaxland -5,904 South Sydney
Cook -5,674 South Sydney
Fowler -5,464 South Sydney
Hughes -1,068 South Sydney
Lowe -1,649 South Sydney
Reid -9,939 South Sydney
Watson -6,530 South Sydney
Werriwa 1,415 South Sydney -43,627
Grayndler -2,485 Sydney
Kingsford Smith -2,472 Sydney
Sydney 6,599 Sydney
Wentworth -3,362 Sydney -1721
Calare -215 Western NSW
Farrer -2,637 Western NSW
Gwydir -5,723 Western NSW
New England -1,632 Western NSW
Parkes -6,377 Western NSW
Riverina -68 Western NSW -16654
Chifley -3,918 Western Suburbs
Greenway 1,951 Western Suburbs
Lindsay -5,556 Western Suburbs
Macquarie -832 Western Suburbs
Mitchell 7,131 Western Suburbs
Parramatta -1,232 Western Suburbs
Prospect -812 Western Suburbs -3270