Yesterday we had the excitement of
serious IR reform. Henry’s estimates of long run benefits are unchallenged but
what of the immediate future?
On Saturday we saw another reading
from the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating – which showed a significant
fall. This has been caused by the sharp rise in the price of oil which has had
a flow on effect – see this Herald-Sun article from
September 30, 15 days ago.

The
price of oil has since retreated somewhat, but expert opinion is now
beginning to factor in the fact that expensive petrol is here to stay
as global growth continues to drive demand. Higher petrol prices are
like higher interest rates, but in reality we may get both.
The papers have so far passed over
the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating which shows a very similar trend to
the Westpac/Melbourne Institute measure (they do ask the same questions).

Read the full article (with Roy
Morgan Research vs Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence comparative
graph) here.

Peter Fray

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