The Oz
reports on Australian Bureau
of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimates which “… warned demand for
minerals would start weakening through this year, dragging down commodity prices
as supply from mining companies around the world started to catch up with
China’s appetite for commodities to
feed its economic growth.”

We tend to agree. Henry’s commodity
guru, Nick Raffan, writes on the demon of compound growth (it can’t continue
forever) but notes that China is not without its problems,
particularly when you listen to the sceptics. Nick

…Pollution levels in some cities
are extraordinarily high and social unrest is rising as the gap between rich and
poor increases. Worrying many is the public stance taken by Beijing that civil unrest
and threats to stability will not be tolerated. China certainly has its detractors including well
know Allianz Dresdner market strategist Frank Veneroso who holds a view that
China is in for a hard-landing.

There are some big bets in the
market as to when this might happen, and when it does, how miners will respond
with corporate strategies that seem largely based on the last few years that
were extraordinary to say the least.

Read the full Raff Report on
commodities here.

Also, Henry has awarded Iron Mark
a clear winner in the Bile Brownlow. A consistent effort with a series of
3-vote performances. There could be a countback though – as David Humphries
notes that talk of defamation is in the air.

Read on

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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