Yours truly’s plans fell through on Saturday night – and one Human League video on Rage didn’t do much to kill time. Instead, this insomniac spent the night with the Labor Lemmings on Mumble Politics.

It was a good move. Polls and pundits had Kim Beazley as Labor’s only hope in the Sunday rags – see The Sunday Telegraph or SMH.

Mark Latham beat the Bomber 47 to 45 votes back in 2003. Now, there are five fewer and seven new faces in Caucus – and a new Senate from July 1, with one Senator departing from Victoria and a fresher from South Australia.

Here’s how the figures seem to add up in obvious factional terms at the moment – and if there are any errors, remember that yours truly is a lapsed Liberal and can’t think like a comrade.

Latham Beazley Unknown Total Caucus

Last Ballot: 47 45 One absent? 93 (65 MPs, 28 Senators)

After 2004 election,
before new Senate: 39 (-8) 42 (-3) 7 (+7) 88 (60 MPs, 28 senators)

After new Senate: 36 (-3) 40 (-2) 12 (+5) 88 (60 MPs, 28 senators)

Let’s factor in post election dummy spits, though – but not the events of last few weeks – and see how things look:

After election 37 42 9 88 (60 MPs, 28 senators)

New Senate 34 41 13 88

Latham has lost Dick Adams, thanks to forest policy, and Nicola Roxon for her omission from Cabinet. When the new Senate sit, Beazley gains Glenn Sterle from the undecided column. Sterle has been put into the Senate by the WA bruvvers after they purged Peter Cook for backing Latham.

Five conclusions can be drawn from these rough figures:

  • Supporting Latham is not a good career move
  • Latham was behind even before the last fortnight
  • The Class of 2004 will determine who leads the ALP
  • There must have been defections from the Latham camp of late
  • Tasmanians have a disproportionate influence in the Federal Parliamentary ALP and are still likely to support Latham, despite what he’s done to their numbers.

So what has happened since the ballot at the end of 2003? Here’s a state-by-state wrap:

New South Wales

  • Frank Mossfield – Latham supporter, retired from Greenway, Labor lost seat
  • Laurie Brereton – Latham supporter, retired, replacement Peter Garret is an undecided
  • Janice Crosio – Latham supporter, retired, replacement Chris Bowen an undecided
  • Sharon Bird – new Member for Cunningham is an undetermined
  • Justine Elliot – new Member for Richmond is an undetermined
  • Julie Owens – new Member for Parramatta is an undetermined

Victoria

  • Christian Zahra – Latham supporter, lost McMillan
  • Nicola Roxon – probably deserted Latham
  • Jacinta Collins – Beazley supporter, lost Senate spot to Family First

Queensland

  • Con Sciacca – Beazley supporter, lost Bowman

Western Australia

  • Sharryn Jackson – Beazley supporter, lost Hasluck
  • Jan McFarlane – Latham supporter, lost Stirling
  • Peter Cook – purged Latham supporter from the Senate, replacement Glenn Sterle a Beazley vote

South Australia

  • David Cox – Latham, lost Kingston
  • Martyn Evans – Beazley, lost Wakefield
  • Steve Georganas – new Member for Hindmarsh, undecided
  • Kate Ellis – new Member for Adelaide, undecided
  • Nick Bolkus – Latham supporter retiring, successor Anne McEwen undecided
  • Geoff Buckland – Beazley supporter retiring, successor Annette Hurley undecided
  • Dana Wortley – new ALP Senator, vote undecided

Tasmania

  • Michelle O’Byrne – Latham supporter, lost Bass
  • Sid Sidebottom – Latham supporter, lost Braddon
  • Dick Adams – Latham supporter gone wobbly
  • Kay Denman – Latham supporter lost Senate preselection to undetermined Helen Polley

ACT & Northern Territory

  • No change

Peter Fray

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