For whom the poll tells

A wonk’s delight – some raw, undiluted polling for you

A wonk’s delight – some raw, undiluted polling for you

Newspoll Coalition and ALP Primary Votes in 12 months prior to 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004(?) Elections
Fortnight Before Poll Get Crikey FREE to your inbox every weekday morning with the Crikey Worm. Email Sign up By subscribing you are agreeing to our terms and conditions	Pre 1996 Poll	Pre 1998 Poll	Pre 2001 Poll	Pre 7 August 2004 Poll	Pre 2 October 2004 Poll	Pre 4 December 2004 Poll	Notes
	LNP-ALP Margin	LNP-ALP Margin	LNP-ALP Margin	LNP-ALP Margin	LNP-ALP Margin	LNP-ALP Margin	Pre 7 August 2004 Poll	Pre 2 October 2004 Poll	Pre 4 December 2004 Poll
26	19	-4	2	10	6	9
25	11	-8	-8	8	4	6			Latham Elected
24	4	-4	-6	7	2	3
(Worst result for Coalition in 2001 (9-11 March)) – 23	6	0	-13	6	10	2
22	9	-1	-9	6	4	0
21	7	4	-5	4	9	3
20	8	-3	-4	2	6	-3		Latham Elected
19	7	-5	-10	10	3	-5
18	7	-4	-1	4	2	-4
17	11	0	1	9	0	1
16	0	0	-7	6	3	0	Latham Elected
15	10	2	3	3	-3	-3			14-16 May 2004
14	7	7	-6	2	-5	0
13	10	3	-3	0	-4	0
12	7	-3	4	3	1	0
11	6	-11	-2	-3	0	0
10	9	-3	0	-5	-3	0		14-16 May 2004
(Week before 11 September 2001) – 9	7	-6	6	-4	0	0
8	6	0	4	1	0	0
7	6	5	15	0	0	0
6	10	0	15	-3	0	0	14-16 May 2004
5	7	0	13	0	0	0
4	9	-2	8	0	0	0
3	4	-1	11	0	0	0
2	10.5	1	5.5	0	0	0
1	7.5	-4	7.5	0	0	0
Negative results in last 12 months	0	14	12	4	4	4
Positive results in last 12 months	26	12	14	17	13	8
Average lead of last 12 months	7.9	-1.4	0.8	2.5	1.3	0.3
Average lead of last 6 months (available)	7.6	-1.6	6.5	1.0	1.0	0.8
Average lead of last 6 fortnights	8.0	-1.0	10.0	-0.5	?	?
Notes: 1. Even in 12 months prior to 1998 election Coaltion won election despite been behind in polls more than half the time. 2. Coalition in a winning postion prior to 11 September 2001, 6% lead, which was similar to actual election result. 3. Coalition in 2004 is in a similar position to 1998 in terms of a narrow lead/trail over the ALP, given we are in the last six months of this Parliament.