A wonk’s delight – some raw, undiluted polling for you

Newspoll
Coalition and ALP Primary Votes in 12 months prior to 1996, 1998, 2001 and
2004(?) Elections

Fortnight
Before Poll

Pre
1996 Poll

Pre
1998 Poll

Pre
2001 Poll

Pre
7 August 2004 Poll

Pre
2 October 2004 Poll

Pre
4 December 2004 Poll

Notes

LNP-ALP Margin

LNP-ALP Margin

LNP-ALP Margin

LNP-ALP Margin

LNP-ALP Margin

LNP-ALP Margin

Pre
7 August 2004 Poll

Pre
2 October 2004 Poll

Pre
4 December 2004 Poll

26

19

-4

2

10

6

9

25

11

-8

-8

8

4

6

Latham Elected

24

4

-4

-6

7

2

3

(Worst
result for Coalition in 2001 (9-11 March)) – 23

6

0

-13

6

10

2

22

9

-1

-9

6

4

0

21

7

4

-5

4

9

3

20

8

-3

-4

2

6

-3

Latham Elected

19

7

-5

-10

10

3

-5

18

7

-4

-1

4

2

-4

17

11

0

1

9

0

1

16

0

0

-7

6

3

0

Latham Elected

15

10

2

3

3

-3


-3


14-16 May 2004

14

7

7

-6

2

-5

0

13

10

3

-3

0

-4

0

12

7

-3

4

3

1

0

11

6

-11

-2

-3

0

0

10

9

-3

0

-5


-3

0


14-16 May 2004

(Week
before 11 September 2001) – 9

7

-6

6

-4

0

0

8

6

0

4

1

0

0

7

6

5

15

0

0

0

6

10

0

15


-3

0

0


14-16 May 2004

5

7

0

13

0

0

0

4

9

-2

8

0

0

0

3

4

-1

11

0

0

0

2

10.5

1

5.5

0

0

0

1

7.5

-4

7.5

0

0

0

Negative results in last 12 months

0

14

12

4

4

4

Positive results in last 12 months

26

12

14

17

13

8

Average lead of last 12 months

7.9

-1.4

0.8

2.5

1.3

0.3

Average lead of last 6 months (available)

7.6

-1.6

6.5

1.0

1.0

0.8

Average lead of last 6 fortnights

8.0

-1.0

10.0

-0.5

?

?

Notes: 1. Even in 12 months prior to 1998 election
Coaltion won election despite been behind in polls more than half the time.
2. Coalition in a winning postion prior to 11 September 2001, 6% lead, which
was similar to actual election result. 3. Coalition in 2004 is in a similar
position to 1998 in terms of a narrow lead/trail over the ALP, given we are
in the last six months of this Parliament.

Peter Fray

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