A wonk’s delight – some raw, undiluted polling for you
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Newspoll Coalition and ALP Primary Votes in 12 months prior to 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004(?) Elections |
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Fortnight Before Poll |
Pre 1996 Poll |
Pre 1998 Poll |
Pre 2001 Poll  |
Pre 7 August 2004 Poll |
Pre 2 October 2004 Poll |
Pre 4 December 2004 Poll |
Notes | ||
| LNP-ALP Margin | LNP-ALP Margin | LNP-ALP Margin | LNP-ALP Margin | LNP-ALP Margin | LNP-ALP Margin |
Pre 7 August 2004 Poll |
Pre 2 October 2004 Poll |
Pre 4 December 2004 Poll |
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| 26 | 19 | -4 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 9 | |||
| 25 | 11 | -8 | -8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | Latham Elected | ||
| 24 | 4 | -4 | -6 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |||
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(Worst result for Coalition in 2001 (9-11 March)) – 23 |
6 | 0 | -13 | 6 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 22 | 9 | -1 | -9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |||
| 21 | 7 | 4 | -5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 20 | 8 | -3 | -4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | Latham Elected | ||
| 19 | 7 | -5 | -10 | 10 | 3 | -5 | |||
| 18 | 7 | -4 | -1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | |||
| 17 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||
| 16 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | Latham Elected | ||
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
-3 |
14-16 May 2004 |
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| 14 | 7 | 7 | -6 | 2 | -5 | 0 | |||
| 13 | 10 | 3 | -3 | 0 | -4 | 0 | |||
| 12 | 7 | -3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |||
| 11 | 6 | -11 | -2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 10 | 9 | -3 | 0 | -5 |
-3 |
0 |
14-16 May 2004 |
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(Week before 11 September 2001) – 9 |
7 | -6 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 8 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 7 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 6 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
-3 |
0 | 0 |
14-16 May 2004 |
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| 5 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 4 | 9 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 3 | 4 | -1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 2 | 10.5 | 1 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 1 | 7.5 | -4 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Negative results in last 12 months | 0 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Positive results in last 12 months | 26 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 8 | |||
| Average lead of last 12 months | 7.9 | -1.4 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | |||
| Average lead of last 6 months (available) | 7.6 | -1.6 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | |||
| Average lead of last 6 fortnights | 8.0 | -1.0 | 10.0 | -0.5 | ? | ? | |||
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Notes: 1. Even in 12 months prior to 1998 election Coaltion won election despite been behind in polls more than half the time. 2. Coalition in a winning postion prior to 11 September 2001, 6% lead, which was similar to actual election result. 3. Coalition in 2004 is in a similar position to 1998 in terms of a narrow lead/trail over the ALP, given we are in the last six months of this Parliament. |
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