The Greens have at least two and possibly three Senate seats thanks to preferences from their old friends at One Nation.
The Greens have knocked the Dems off in NSW thanks to One Nation preferences and it is tight in WA and Victoria.
Natasha was trumpeting a 0.2 per cent rise in the Democrat’s national vote but they will definitely lose at least one and probably two of their 5 Senators up for re-election but will probably still control the balance of power in their own right.
However, the Dems were facing a wipe-out earlier in the year and have definitely benefited from the disillusionment with the major parties that saw people like Bob Brown lift their primary vote from 8.6% to 14 per cent.
Natasha ran a pretty shoddy campaign but I’m not convinced that Meg Lees would have done much better given the wipe-out they suffered in the Queensland and WA elections.
And Natasha did lift her primary vote in South Australia to almost win a quota in her own right, but it was Green preferences that eventually got her over the line.
Natasha’s deputy, Senator Andrew Bartlett, has been returned in Queensland on the back of Pauline’s preferences after the Greens could not get their noses in front of the Dems to get the Hanson preferences first.
It was interesting to hear Natasha blaming the preference deal on Channel Nine for a drop in their vote relative to the Greens. One of the great truisms in politics is that supposedly independent players can’t do preference deals so the Dems should go back to their traditional split ticket in the future.
The Greens can get away with always preferencing Labor because they are further to the Left and Labor’s environmental policies are usually more appealing.
One Nation has again been shafted by the preference system. Both the Greens and One Nation got 4.29 per cent of the vote nationally but with everyone preferencing against them they will have no seats.
Ironically, the Greens will probably be elected in Victoria and NSW on One Nation preferences in a replay of the WA state election where the Greens scored 5 upper house seats, largely on the back of One Nation preferences.
Thank god Graeme Campbell and Pauline Hanson won’t be in the Senate but One Nation will still collect a cheque from the taxpayer of about $800,000 and retain their sole senator Len Harris and 2 Upper House MPs in WA.
Campbell and Hanson both out-polled their Green, Democrat and National party rivals but the Senate is all about smart preference deals because 90 per cent of people vote above the line. So, when everyone puts you last you need more than Campbell’s 0.49% of a quota and Pauline’s 0.71 per cent.
And while Pauline still cracked 10 per cent across Queensland, her former speechwriter John Pasquarelli struggled big time as an independent in Bendigo with just 1.36 % and even got out-polled by One Nation’s 2.44 per cent.
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