Hillary has carefully weighed the facts and the gossip, rumours and innuendo and makes these bold predictions about the marginals and a few other key seats.

Coalition:

Herbert 0.1 (Queensland) LOSE

Richmond 0.1 (New South Wales) LOSE

Eden-Monaro 0.3 (New South Wales) LOSE TO INDEPENDENT

Hinkler 0.3 (Queensland) LOSE

Paterson 0.4 (notionally Coalition after redistribution, presently held by Labor, NSW) – LOSE

Moreton 0.6 (Queensland) HOLD

Aston 0.6 (Victoria) HOLD

Petrie 0.8 (Queensland) LOSE

Makin 0.8 (South Australia) HOLD

Longman 0.9 (Queensland) HOLD

Labor:

Bass 0.2 (Tasmania) LOSE

Dickson 0.1 (Queensland) LOSE

Ryan 0.2 (Queensland) LOSE

Canning 0.6 (Western Australia) – LOSE

McMillan 0.6 (Victoria) HOLD

BETWEEN ONE AND TWO PER CENT

Coalition:

La Trobe 1 (Victoria) LOSE

McEwen 1 (Victoria) LOSE

Adelaide 1.2 (Guess!) LINE BALL

Hindmarsh 1.2 (South Australia) HOLD

Deakin 1.9 (Victoria) LOSE

Labor:

Stirling 1.4 (Western Australia) LOSE

Kingston 1.5 (South Australia) HOLD

Macarthur 1.7 (notionally Labor after redistribution presently held by the Liberal Party, New South Wales) LOSE

BETWEEN TWO AND THREE PER CENT

Coalition:

Robertson 2 (New South Wales) HOLD

Dunkley 2 (Victoria) LOSE

Kalgoorlie 2.1 (Western Australia) LOSE

Lindsay 2.1 (Queensland) HOLD

Solomon 2.4 (New seat notionally Liberal, Northern Territory) LOSE

Page 2.6 (New South Wales) HOLD

Ballarat 2.8 (Victoria) LOSE

Wide Bay 2.9 (Queensland) HOLD

Labor:

Chisholm 2.1 (Victoria) HOLD

Parramatta 2.3(notionally Labor after redistribution presently held by the Liberal Party, New South Wales) HOLD

Hasluck 2.4 (New seat notionally Labor, Western Australia) HOLD

Griffith 2.4 (Queensland) HOLD

Swan 2.5 (Western Australia) HOLD

Dobell 2.9 (New South Wales) HOLD

BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR PER CENT

Coalition:

Flinders 3.7 (Victoria) HOLD

Labor:

Lilley 3.1 (Queensland) HOLD

Bowman 3.3 (Queensland) LINE BALL

Cowan 3.4 (Western Australia) HOLD

Bendigo 3.5 (Victoria) HOLD

Lingiari 3.5 (New seat notionally Labor, Northern Territory) HOLD

BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE PER CENT

Coalition:

Gilmore 4.0 (New South Wales) HOLD

Leichhardt 4.1 (Queensland) HOLD

Fairfax 4.4 (Queensland) LOSE TO INDEPENDENT

Dawson 4.4 (Queensland) HOLD

Corangamite 4.5 (Victoria) HOLD

Macquarie 4.9 (New South Wales) HOLD

Casey 4.9 (Victoria) HOLD

Labor:

Braddon 4.4 (Tasmania) HOLD

Brisbane 4.6 (Guess!) HOLD

Lowe 4.9 (New South Wales) HOLD

OTHER SEATS

Coalition

Warringah (New South Wales) HOLD

New England (New South Wales) — LOSE TO INDEPENDENT

Mayo (South Australia) HOLD

Boothby (South Australia) HOLD

Wentworth (New South Wales) HOLD

Independent

Kennedy (Queensland) INDEPENDENT HOLD

Do the sums and what do we end up with? Well, if you say the Libs will hang on in Adelaide and Labor will hold Bowman, you end up with a bloody awful mess.

On these calculations, no party has a majority Labor has 75 out of 150 members, the Coalition has 70 and there are five independents. The only independent qualified to take the Speaker’s chair and give Labor a majority in its own right is Peter Andren but he’s unlikely to accept such an offer. Labor would need to persuade someone from the Coalition to rat and take the job.

Saturday night and the following weeks are going to be interesting. Very interesting.

Feedback to [email protected] and to [email protected]

* Crikey is Australia’s most successful independent ezine with 1900 subscribers who for $55 get a tee-shirt, 5 sealed section emails a week and access to our 2.4 million word searchable archive so why not join the Crikey army by clicking here and help us fight the good fight for better corporate performance and accountability.

Peter Fray

Fetch your first 12 weeks for $12

Here at Crikey, we saw a mighty surge in subscribers throughout 2020. Your support has been nothing short of amazing — we couldn’t have got through this year like no other without you, our readers.

If you haven’t joined us yet, fetch your first 12 weeks for $12 and start 2021 with the journalism you need to navigate whatever lies ahead.

Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey

JOIN NOW