Here is the updated version of Hillary?s analysis of the key marginal seats previously only available to subscribers This week subscribers will be receiving Hillary?s How to Vote featuring exclusive advice on whether your MP deserves to keep their seat or get the boot. If you want the real inside information, click here.
Seats ? surprise, surprise ? will go both ways, and then there are various independents who might pick up a couple, including the mendacious mendicants from the Free Lunch Movement.
Then there are the preferences deals. First there?s the one that the Change Politics Dems would never accede to and that they forgot to tell Satan about, then there?s the outcome of Fart Boy Slim?s efforts to woo Bob Brown ? despite the fact that Moral Rearmament and Bob Brown?s preferences don?t seem to go hand in hand.
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LESS THAN ONE PER CENT
Herbert 0.1% (Queensland)
Herbert is centred around Townsville and takes in some of the surrounding agricultural districts.
Sitting Member, Liberal Peter Lindsay, who won the seat in 1996, is a non-entity. He had an unsuccessful shot at a state seat in 1995, despite many years on the Townsville Council.
His opponent is Jennifer Hill, a scientist at Townsville General Hospital. She had a go at a state seat too and is a member of the Townsville City Council. The Liberal Party tried to drag her into the Labor Party electoral rorts row last year ? preselections in Townsville were at the centre of the whole affair ? but she escaped.
Richmond 0.1% (New South Wales)
Richmond takes in the north-east tip of New South Wales, including Tweed Heads and Murwillumbah and Byron Bay, so is filled with hippies stoned out of their heads, baby boomers talking shit, various new age charlatans, Paul Hogan and a few other celebs as well as a pile of weirdoes and bludgers of all shapes and sizes. The economy of the district is tied very closely to that of the Gold Coast across the Tweed and the success of the dope crop.
The seat is held by Nat ?L-plate? Larry Anthony, the incompetent Minister for Community Services. He does, however, deserve a few marks for being the only sitting Nat who came out in favour of a republic.
The GST on caravan parks has been pushed as a big local issue, so this year Larry has adopted the innovative campaign technique of cycling round the electorate and even spending the odd night in ? you guessed it ? caravan parks.
His Labor opponent is Jenny McAllister, a hack who works for the Community and Public Sector Union in their North Coast office. The Labor preselection turned into a nasty brawl within the left, and as a result a former local Labor heavy is running as an independent and may split the vote.
She is Julie Nathan, the former president of the Labor Richmond federal electorate council, who claims she is running as a protest against outside interference in the party?s local affairs. That?s the usual excuse.
Eden-Monaro 0.3% (New South Wales)
This is a very mixed electorate in the south-east corner of NSW. It takes in the fishing, holiday and retirement towns of Batemans Bay, Narooma and Bermagui, the agricultural areas around Bega, logging towns around Eden and Bombala, the snowfields, as well as Queanbeyan and the Canberra overflow. Eden-Monaro is seen as one of those key seats that tends to change hands with governments, so it has been desperately pork-barrelled by the government.
Sitting member Gary Nairn was elected in 1996 after spending a number of years in the Northern Territory. He was president of the CLP between 1990 and 1994, boom years for the party when they increased their vote in two elections. He was Chair of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, but the Rodent tossed him aside and installed Teenage Toecutter Christopher Pyne in the job for the inquisition, sorry, inquiry into the various voting rorts of the Queensland Labor Party.
The seat was held by Labor candidate Steve Whan?s father Bob during the Whitlam government. He has a pretty good reputation, and the New South Wales party tried to get him to run for the state seat of Monaro in 1999. Whan has worked for the past few years at the Australian Sports Commission and the Australian Institute of Sport, bodies dedicated to wasting incredible amounts of public money for a few minutes of feelgood every four years when Australia wins the bronze for underwater wrestling at the Olympics.
The free lunch movement is running a candidate too, Peter Cochran, the former Nat MP for Monaro who is now Mayor of Cooma-Monaro has decided we owe him and others like him a living ? and to underline the point even got Mad Bob Katter down to open his office.
Hinkler 0.3% (Queensland)
Hinkler is located on the Queensland central coasts and takes in Gladstone and Bundaberg along with the surrounding rural areas.
Sitting Member Paul Neville has held the seat since 1993. He is National Party Whip but that?s about the only thing that has distinguished him.
His Labor opponent, Cheryl Dorron, is a hack with the Queensland Nurses union and is coming back for another go at the seat after contesting it at the 1998 Federal election.
Paterson 0.4% (notionally Coalition after redistribution, presently held by Labor, New South Wales)
After Hinkler, thank God, this seat is a little more interesting. Paterson is centred on the lower Hunter Valley and takes Port Stephens, Tuncurry and the Prime Miniature?s beloved holiday retreat of Hawks Nest, where the Rodent and his brood used to take summer holidays until the meeja started misbehaving.
Sitting Labor Member Bob Horne held the seat between 1993 and 1996 and won it back again at the last election. At the height of the furore over MP?s lurks ?n? perks a few months ago he was forced to out himself as the MP with the highest printing bill in the nation.
His Liberal rival will be Bob Baldwin, a jovial enough chap who held the seat between 1996 and 1998 but suffered from delusions of grandeur.
Moreton 0.6% (Queensland)
Moreton stretches south-east of the Brisbane River at Chelmer and Yeronga and includes Archerfield, Salisbury, Sunnybank, Mt Gravatt, Rochedale, Eight Mile Plains and Underwood.
Liberal Gary Hardgrave who won the seat in 1996 worked as a pressie to Senator David MacGibbon but enjoys greater fame as a presenter of the kids? TV program Wombat.
He faced off against his Labor opponent Kathleen Brooks last time round in 1998. Brooks comes with a strong record as CEO of Queensland Sudden Infant Death Syndrome and a finalist in the Telstra Business Woman of the Year awards back in 1997.
Aston 0.6% (Victoria)
What don?t we know about Aston after that bloody by-election ? Melbourne?s outer eastern suburbs, sitting member Chris Pearce, Labor candidate mummy?s boy Kieran Boland and after all that bloody effort and money Pearce better hang on.
Petrie 0.8% (Queensland)
Petrie is located in northern Brisbane and takes in the suburbs of Chermside West, Carseldine, parts of Aspley, Bridgeman Downs and Bracken Ridge, as well as Redcliffe, Scarborough and Clontarf on the Redcliffe Peninsula.
Sitting Liberal Member Teresa Gambaro has not exactly enjoyed a high profile.
Her Labor opponent Rosemary Hume won a strong swing in the 1998 election and has a good local network.
Makin 0.8% (South Australia)
A seat with a comic relief MP, Makin incorporates the north-west growth corridor of Adelaide and includes the suburbs of Para Hills, Para Vista, Modbury, Salisbury East, Tea Tree Gully, Wynn Vale, Surrey Downs and Golden Grove.
Sitting MP Trish Draper was one of the beneficiaries of the swings of 1996, knocking off the high profile socialist entrepreneur Peter Duncan. She survived against all expectations in 1998 when Labor was stupid enough to run a union hack and high profile whinger.
Draper is not too bright, adopted the Franca Arena hysteric approach to paedophilia and ran a high profile campaign against the film of Lolita ? presumably unaware that the Kubrick version was available at any half-decent video shop. She sits behind the PM, and takes advantage of the camera opportunities to wear an Adelaide Crows scarf in the footy season.
Labor candidate Julie Woodman made good local connections as a Neighbourhood House co-ordinator and as the co-ordinator of the Ingle Farm Community Centre.
The Democrat campaign has added a touch of comedy to a tight campaign. As the Democrat funds are being poured in to help Princess Tashy and her friend Jo Pride, Christine Posta, the poor Dem candidate, had to stick paper posters over old John Schumann for Mayo coreflutes. She forgot to use a waterproof glue ? with the obvious results.
Longman 0.9% (Queensland)
Longman is a mixed electorate covering parts of the southern Sunshine Coast, Caboolture, Burpengary, Deception Bay and Bribie Island.
Sitting member, Employment Services Minister Mal Brough, has made a complete mess of his portfolio and the electorate was at the heart of claims of GST rorting made against the Queensland Liberal Party.
The Labor candidate Stephen Beckett is a party hack who works for a state MP and involved in a number of volunteer organisations including the local Blue Light Disco. How sweet.
One Nation has a pseudo high profile in Bert Bowden, an IT worker who won a gold in the 1994 Commonwealth Games for ? yes, you guessed it ? shooting.
Bass 0.2% (Tasmania)
Bass takes in Tasmania?s top north-east coast and is dominated by Launceston and has become a notorious marginal, changing hands with each election since 1993.
Sitting member Michelle O?Byrne is a typical Labor hack ? a former political staffer and organiser for the Missos (Miscellaneous Workers Union).
Her opponent Tony Benneworth is a former Tasmanian cricket all-rounder who was being elected to State parliament for Bass at the 1992 election before being defeated when the Libs lost in 1998.
Dickson 0.1% (Queensland)
Dickson covers the north-western edge of Brisbane, taking in the suburbs of Kallangur, Petrie, Strathpine, Albany Creek, Ferny Grove and Everton Park
Its sitting member is ? of course ? Cheryl. Even if she doesn?t get committed, arrested or kill herself before polling day, Liberal Peter Dutton is looking good. Some high profile Labor women seem to suffer from memory problems ? and the latest revelations over a bank loan won?t help Chezza either.
The electorate is getting really fired up, as a huge mass of people are already practising their steps for when they dance on her grave.
Ryan 0.2% (Queensland)
This is another seat we?ve heard a lot about, based around Brisbane?s posh western suburbs.
Labor member Leonie Short?s luck may just hold. The remarkably enthusiastic recruiting practices of her young opponent Michael Johnson and the circumstances surrounding his preselection have failed to impressed a significant number of local Liberals and Liberal voters.
Canning 0.6% (Western Australia)
Canning takes in the south-western edge of Perth and ranges from suburban to semi rural.
It has been a tough year for the low profile member Jane Gerick, who has been battling leukaemia, but she believes her treatment has been successful.
Her Liberal opponent Don Randall won the neighbouring seat of Swan in 1996 and lost it in 1998 enjoyed brief fame at the time of Chezza?s defection from the Dems by saying she had ?the morals of an alley cat on heat?. Nice.
McMillan 0.6% (Victoria)
McMillan takes in a string of towns along the Princes Highway east of Pakenham, including the notable cultural centre of Moe.
Member Christian Zahra is a young parliamentarian with promise who worked for the former MP, Barry Cunningham.
His Liberal opponent Jim Forbes is a dairy farmer who has spent most of the time since 1990 sitting on one of the local councils, serving a stint as Mayor in 1999-2000.
ONE TO TWO PER CENT
La Trobe 1.0% (Victoria)
La Trobe takes in Melbourne?s outer eastern suburbs and some of the Dandenongs, that beautiful area so beloved by picnickers and pyromaniacs.
Sitting member Bob Charles is one of the 10 Libs who romped in 1990 as voters revolted against John Cain. He is a hard working local member, but suffers from an unfortunate obsession about industrial relations to such a degree that it may well have been him down on the docks in a balaclava.
Labor candidate Phil Staindl is a government relations consultant, so presumably knows every trick in the book. He is also seen as the best candidate Labor has run in the seat for a long time, has been working the electorate hard and is well resourced ? Labor are talking this seat up as a possible gain.
McEwen 1.0% (Victoria)
McEwen is based on central Victoria and stretches from the fringe northern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne to take in areas such as Craigieburn, Hurstbridge, Diamond Creek, Yarra Glen, Healesville, Yarra Junction, Healesville, Whittlesea, Kilmore, Seymour and Lake Eildon in central Victoria
Liberal MP Fran Bailey is another member of the Class of 90 ? but wasn?t as lucky as Charles. She came in with a very high opinion of herself and after assiduous brown-nosing was made John Hewson?s consumer affairs spokesperson, with a special brief to sell Fightback! As a result, she pursued a different career between 1993 and 1996 and came back somewhat humbled.
Andrew MacLeod, the Labor candidate, has a profile from his work as an International Red Cross lawyer in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia and as a member of the United Nations Observer Mission to East Timor for the independence referendum.
Adelaide 1.2% (Guess!)
Adelaide is an odd fish, taking in the CBD and the suburbs to the immediate north and south. This means it has some of the poshest and poorest parts of town.
Sitting MP and Parliamentary Secretary to Count Yorgu Trish Worth is an accidental member. A long time Liberal player, she was a candidate for the state Legislative Council in 1993 when the preselected candidate withdrew in the face of a vicious smear campaign some claim was orchestrated by a bitter former MP.
Worth is famous for publishing newsletters that consists of virtually nothing but photos of her and was very lucky not to score a mention in the travel rorts affairs due to her close friendship with one of the MPs who went down.
Her opponent Tim Stanley is a leading Labor lawyer who has the rare gift of being able to drink West End Draught with the horny handed sons of toil in north while impressing voters in the south by knowing how to wrap his napkin round a latte.
Hindmarsh 1.2% (South Australia)
Hindmarsh takes in Adelaide?s western suburbs from close to the city to the sea.
Liberal Chris Gallus won the seat of Hawker by just 14 votes in 1990, and has been in campaign mode ever since. When Hawker was abolished in a redistribution, she charged into Hindmarsh and captured a seat with a strong Labor tradition. She has managed to hang on, despite being Alexander Downer?s shadow Aboriginal Affairs minister on his disastrous bush trip when he didn?t know his policy, and is now the Cadaver?s Parly Sec when he?s wearing his Minister for Reconciliation and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs hat.
Labor?s Steve Georganas won a big swing in 1998 and has strong links with the significant local Greek community. Conventional wisdom, however, is that he won all their votes back then and that as there?s no more swing to come.
Deakin 1.9% (Victoria)
Deakin takes in suburbs in a narrow strip along Maroondah Highway and Canterbury Road in Melbourne’s outer east. It includes the suburbs of Blackburn, Nunawading, Mitcham, Ringwood and Croydon South.
Sitting Member since 1996 Phil Barresi is apparently in full panic mode ? not a good sign at this stage.
His Labor opponent Helen Buckingham is a Councillor for the City of Whitehorse and served as mayor 1998-99.
Stirling 1.4% (Western Australia)
Stirling takes in some of Perth?s most popular beaches such as Scarborough, Trigg and North Beach, as well as Innaloo, Carine, Balcatta, Stirling, Yokine, Balga and Nollamara.
Post Tampa, Labor?s Jann McFarlane could be in trouble here. She has a low profile and her Liberal opponent Bob Cronin enjoys a profile as a former editor of The West Australian.
Kingston 1.5% (South Australia)
Kingston takes in all of Adelaide?s coastal suburbs south of O’Hallorans Hill, including Hallett Cove, Happy Valley, Reynella, Morphett Vale, Hackham, Noarlunga, Seaford, Maslin Beach and Port Willunga.
Labor MP David Cox, has impeccable credentials. Kingston used to take in the McLaren Vale wine areas until the last redistribution, and as a grape grower with extensive experience in national government, working as Principal Adviser to former Treasurer Ralph Willis and for former Finance Minister Peter Walsh he should be a strong candidate. Unfortunately, he is arguably the most boring man in the arliament ? no mean feat.
The seat contains stacks of boat people ? subsidised Pom migrants who love a whinge and may well give a boost to Liberal candidate Dean Hersy, a cinema manager.
Macarthur 1.7% (presently held by the Liberal Party, New South Wales)
Macarthur scarcely resembles the seat it was before redistribution. It now takes in the south-west edge of the Sydney metropolitan area, including Liverpool, Penrith, Camden and Campbelltown.
The seat ? formerly held by outgoing Finance Minister John Fahey ? is notionally Labor, and ALP candidate Meg Oates has been a councillor on Campbelltown City Council for the past 14 years, serving as Mayor three times and teaches at a local high school.
The Libs seem to have the edge, however, with high profile and popular ultra-marathon runner Pat Farmer going down a treat.
TWO TO THREE PER CENT
Robertson 2% (New South Wales)
Robertson is a Central Coast seat just north of Sydney made up of Gosford, Terrigal and Woy Woy ? once memorably described by Spike Milligan as the world’s only above ground cemetery.
Sitting member Jim Lloyd was a local service station proprietor and former milkman before picking up the seat in 1996, so no doubt the Prime Miniature considers him the salt of the earth. The Dems are giving preferences against him as part of the deal they didn?t bother to tell Satan about.
As readers may remember, there was a little bit of a ruckus over the choice of Labor candidate. Trish Moran won the battle against General Norriega?s wife and former Senator Belinda Neal. She and hubby got most stroppy and started a series of appeals, but Moran was confirmed as the candidate by Labor?s national executive at Fart Boy Slim? insistence ? who no doubt recognised that any number of barnyard animals could put in a better performance for the ALP than Neal.
Dunkley 2% (Victoria)
Dunkley is one of those typical narky, whiny outer suburban electorates that are difficult for anyone to hold. It is based around Frankston and takes in Melbourne’s south-east suburban sprawl.
Bruce Billson, the local member, hasn?t exactly been seen as a good MP and has a reputation for being a difficult candidate, although he?s working hard.
His Labor opponent Mark Conroy is a former Mayor of Frankston in 2000 and has useful skills as the field research manager for a local market research company. He has campaigned strongly on local issues that strike a chord, such as more beds for the Frankston Hospital and more police in the Frankston and Mornington Peninsula region.
Kalgoorlie 2.1% (Western Australia)
It is obligatory for all commentators to state that Kalgoorlie is the largest electorate in the world. Given that it stretches Esperance to Broome and Derby Hillary will happily concede that it is bloody big. It?s also going to be one of the most fascinating seats to watch.
The seat was won in 1998 by Barry Haase, who has spoken out on key local issues such as petrol prices and road funding, both important issues in such a large electorate.
Labor candidate Paul Browning grew up in the electorate, moved to Perth to work as a hack for various MPs, most recently as regional policy adviser in Peter Cook’s Kalgoorlie office.
The Libs only won the seat in 98 on the back of preferences of celebrated ratbag Graham Campbell, who was defeated by the international Zionist conspiracy. Since he is now busy running for the Senate for One Nation and trying to take over the party from Pauline, who he believes stole his limelight, Campbell is no longer a factor.
Haase should lose ? but as this electorate takes in the coast where boat people actually wash up, no-one quite knows how the Tampa factor will play out. After all, there are a hell of a lot of blue singlets and rednecks in the electorate.
Lindsay 2.1% (New South Wales)
The home of Kacky Jelly, centred around Penrith on Sydney?s far western fringe.
Many people claim Kacky?s greatest claim to fame is being Australia?s least deserving minister ever. However, Hillary believes that she deserves more acclaim for her decision to wear a black thong under white slacks for her swearing in. The boys on the frontbench couldn?t believe their eyes when she bent over to sign the book. Lex Loser still probably fantasises about the magic moment.
Her campaign has been described as ?anarchic? by a senior Lib, and worries about the seat have been compounded by another one of those preference deals by the ?change politics? Dems who never stoop to such low tactics.
Her opponent, David Bradbury, appears to be the result of some genetic engineering experiment conducted in a back room at Sussex Street. He is only 25, but has already worked as a campaign director with the ARM for the ConCon, been an industrial officer for the Australian Services Union and is Mayor of Penrith. To top it all off, he had time to graduate from the Hawker Britton Charm School.
Solomon 2.4% (New seat, notionally Liberal, Northern Territory)
The Territory has finally been given two seats, and Solomon takes in Darwin and Palmerston.
CLP candidate Dave Tollner was at the centre of a ruckus a few weeks ago when journos from the Oz overheard a conversation about plans to have him dropped over comments on single mums and a drink driving matter he?d forgotten to tell them about. Just how out of touch is the CLP getting? These are usually sure fire vote winners in the Territory and if Tollner gets to Canberra he?ll have a driver.
In contrast, Labor candidate Lauren Hull is a clear goody-goody. She is a solicitor who specialises in employment, discrimination and administrative law who also tutors in administrative law at Northern Territory University.
There is a comic relief candidate, too ? Ted Dunstan, a former CLP member who was passed over for preselection, is running for the Democrats. Moving from the CLP to the Dems is like swapping Sinn Fein for the Loyal Orange Lodge, but at least Dunstan?s presence proves it can be done.
Page 2.6% (New South Wales)
Page is located on the far north coast of NSW and includes Grafton, Casino, Lismore and Ballina.
Sitting Nat Ian Causley served as a minister in both the Greiner and Fahey governments before going federal in 1996. He has been the ?C? in the KKC, the Katter/Kelly/Causley bunch of agrarian socialist whingers, and tirelessly bagged ?economic rationalism?.
Well, as the good book says ?as thou sow, so shall thee reap? ? and Causley is in trouble with the Free Lunch Movement candidate, dairy farmer Tom Cooper. Cooper is one of those believes that Section 92 of the Constitution that states ?On the imposition of uniform duties of customs, trade, commerce, and intercourse (fnarr, fnarr) among the States, whether by means of internal carriage or ocean navigation, shall be absolutely free? does not apply to him. He gained a profile demonstrating this by riding a horse through the front door of Woolworth’s headquarters in Sydney as a protest about the price received by dairy farmers after deregulation
Labor?s candidate is Terry Flanagan, a farmer and ministerial adviser to former Page MP and now State MP for Clarence and Minister Harry Woods.
Ballarat 2.% (Victoria)
Ballarat, unsurprisingly, is based on the city of Ballarat and takes in parts of central west Victoria including Daylesford, Avoca and Stawell.
Sitting Liberal Michael Ronaldson is retiring in a huff after failing to make the front bench, some bright local powerbrokers pissed off high profile candidate and Olympic gold medallist Russell Mark and the seat is being contest by Charles Collins, who monitors rural issues from Ballarat for Dynamic Dennis Napthine and used to simultaneously moonlight on 3AW. Not a good sign.
Labor candidate Catherine King is a consultant specialising in health, education and community services who won the Victorian Young Achiever of the Year Award for Community Service for her work in the area.
Wide Bay 2.9% (Queensland, National)
Wide Bay takes in areas of the coast west of Fraser Island such as Hervey Bay and Maryborough and sweeps out to cover Gayndah, Mundubbera, Monto, Biloela and Moura.
Warren Truss, has been the Nat member since 1990 and Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and refugee bashing plays very well with the locals.
His Labor opponent Russell Tremlin is a heavy with the CFMEU, which, as all good Crikey readers know, stands for the Come F*ck Me Union.
Chisholm 2.1% (Victoria)
Middle Melbourne, including the suburbs of Box Hill, Mont Albert, Burwood, Ashwood, Syndal, Mount Waverley, Oakleigh and Clayton. A solid slice of middle Melbourne.
Sitting member Anna Burke is a former Finance Sector Union hack and her Liberal rival Ros Clowes works as a financial and management accounting consultant.
Parramatta 2.3% (notionally Labor, presently held by the Liberal Party, New South Wales)
Like Adelaide, this is a paupers and plutocrats seat that takes in suburbs on edges of the North Shore and much less pleasant place like Ermington, Toongabbie and Wentworthville.
Liberal Member Ross Cameron, as Hillary always likes to say, was one of the fine Christian lads who shared digs with Warwick Farifax. His father, Jim Cameron, is famed as the Liberal state MP who after a heart transplant went into the Legislative Council as a Call to Australia member and boomed for Jesus.
Ross has worked his seat and has been prepared to question conventional wisdom on a number of topics, and Hillary is happy to give him quite a few marks for that. However, he faces a tough battle and the Dems have done one of those deals Satan said she would never do and are preferencing against him.
Labor?s David Borger has served on Parramatta City Council since 1995 and spent a year as Lord Mayor, the youngest person ever to hold the office. He works as an adviser to lefty Andrew Refshauge, the NSW Minister for Urban Affairs and Planning, and has been running a strong grassroots campaign.
Hasluck 2.4% (New seat, notionally Labor, Western Australia)
Hasluck is a new seat created in east/south-east of Perth out of suburbs such as Gosnells, Maddington, Kenwick, Forrestfield, High Wycombe, Lesmurdie, Kalamunda, Hazelmere, Guilford and Midland.
Labor is running Sharryn Jackson, a solid hack who started work as the women’s officer at the Trades and Labor Council and currently is a senior official with the Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union.
Liberal candidate Bethwyn Chan has drawn bottom spot on the ticket, which won?t make life any easier.
Griffith 2.4% (Queensland, Labor)
Griffith covers a range of suburbs on Brisbane?s south such as Morningside, Bulimba, Carina, Coorparoo, Holland Park, Mt Gravatt and Mansfield ? and its sitting MP Kevin Rudd is arguably the most self-important prat in the entire Parliament.
Rudd, a former diplomat in Beijing and Chinese speaker, ran the Queensland Cabinet Office for Wayne Goss, lost a bid to win the seat in 1996 and went off to work for KPMG before finally winning the seat in 98.
He has a significant number of opponents in the Queensland party who believe him to be more of a bureaucrat than a politician, and he hasn?t made any new friends by cutting across Labor?s foreign affairs shadow Laurie Brereton a few times in his prolific column writing.
Liberal candidate Ross Vasta is the son of Angelo Vasta, the judge removed from office by Wayne Goss post-Fitzgerald. Here?s hoping we don?t have a case of ?like father, like son? here.
Swan 2.5% (Western Australia)
Swan is another mixed bag of grotty flats and affluent suburbs with water views. It covers the areas between the Swan and Canning Rivers south of Perth Airport taking in South Perth, Como, Victoria Park, Riverdale and Belmont.
Sitting MP Kim Wilkie isn?t the most competent of members and his main claim to fame has been the rorting allegations made against two former staffers earlier this year, so that may help the Liberal candidate, local businesswoman Bev Bevan.
Dobell 2.9% (New South Wales)
Another seat of the New South Wales Central Coast packed with geriatrics but seeing more young families priced out of Sydney settle there and commute. It takes in the northern suburbs of Gosford, and Terrigal, The Entrance, Bateau Bay, Berkley Vale and Wyong.
One time golden boy Michael Lee, best remembered for his highly publicised ?dates? with Mimi Macpherson during his period as Communications, Tourism and Arts Minister in the last years of the rule of PJK, holds the seat. He also deserves acclaim for his ?Nyah, nyah, I told you so? press conference when he just managed to hang onto the seat in 1996. Since those glory days he has lost his lustre and schoolgirl looks, but remains on Labor?s front bench
A couple of weeks ago Liberal Ken Ticehurst, yet another local businessman, was doing well but yet again the ?new politics? Dems have cut an old politics preference deal with the ALP.
THREE TO FOUR PER CENT
Flinders 3.7 % (Victoria)
The very soon to be former stalking grounds of the Hunchback of Phillip Island, AKA Peter Wreath, Flinders includes the southern Mornington Peninsula, all the shores of Western Port Bay and French Island.
Now that Wreathie?s tossed it in, Liberal Greg Hunt, a former Fulbright Scholar and staffer to Lex Loser should be fine.
Labor are stuck with Maritime Union member Wayne Finch ? a great candidate when the docks were full of blokes in balaclavas and snapping dogs and Wreathie was in charge of it all but, three years later, one who looks decidedly old Labor.
Lilley 3.1% (Queensland)
Lilley takes in the inner northern suburbs of Brisbane between Breakfast Creek, Gympie Road and Moreton Bay.