Roy Morgan has shared its audience data from last week’s Rudd-Abbott health debate with Crikey, and Possum Comitatus is drilling into all the dirty demographic breakdowns.
Wonky
Who made the worm turn?
Why did the channel Seven and Nine worms vary so dramatically during the health debate yesterday? Possum Comitatus has the inside scoop on just who was sitting in each audience.
Who’s the “best party to manage”? Who knows
The media loves when pollsters ask “best party/leader to manage” questions, but, as Possum Comitatus explains (via graphs and words like “Coefficient Value”), they don’t actually tell us anything.
Taking a punt on the polls
Crikey’s Pollytics blog launches a new weekly feature: Betting Market Friday, doing nerdy number things with the federal election prices from Centrebet, IASbet, Sportingbet and Betfair.
A wonky wishlist for 2010
As the election year kicks off in earnest, Peter Brent lists the changes he’d like to see made to Australian political polling, by both pollsters and the media.
Antony Green: Don’t trust Labor’s high polling
Wonks should treat any poll reporting support for the ALP above 54% with caution, warns Antony Green. Yes, Rudd is popular, but that doesn’t mean the party will be breaking any records come election day.
Morgan: Labor goes with the flow
The latest Morgan poll comes in with a two-party preferred vote of 58.5-41.5 — a 1.5 boost to the ALP. But more interesting is what happens to the vote when respondents are able to allocate their own preference flow, says Possum Comitatus.
Graph nerds: when good trends go bad
“The trend is your friend” is usually a good rule of thumb when analysing polling, economic and demographic data. But for other types — say, oh, climate data — local trends can be deceptive. Possum Comitatis explains.
Antony Green: Five possible election scenarios
Antony Green outlines the possible dates for the next Federal Election under three different scenarios: a normal House and half-Senate election, a separate House of Representatives election, or a a double dissolution.
Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?
The ALP has been surging ahead in the polls of late, but Possum Comitatus has found a curious anomaly. Is it possible Labor’s vote is even higher than the headlines are suggesting?
The 2010 Federal Election Pendulum
With the new NSW electoral boundaries finalised, ABC poll master Antony Green has the new pendulum, predicting five Liberal seats will fall to the ALP.
Poll Bludger: NSW redraw redrawn
William Bowe looks at the redistribution of New South Wales’ federal election boundaries.
Antony Green: A Higgins by-election preview
With Peter Costello retiring, his seat of Higgins will be up for grabs in a by-election. Antony Green wonks out on the polls and predictions: Will Labor field a candidate? Will Tim Costello run? Could we see a swing to the Greens?
Is Rudd responsible for Turnbull’s unpopularity?
What if Malcolm Turnbull’s poor polling had nothing to do with Turnbull himself? Possum Comitatus crunches the Coalition’s polling metrics and uncovers some bizarre results.
Antony Green dissects the double dissolution election
Does the Government want an early election? Nope, says Antony Green. But don’t rule out a double dissolution just yet — a constitutional loophole means Rudd can have his cake and eat it too.
Australia: land of the landslide
Crunching all 199 polls taken since January 2008, Possum Comitatus reveals some astonishing results about public political opinion in Australia: landslides have become the norm.
Video of the Day: Al Franken draws USA map from memory
Comedian turned US Senator Al Franken gets his wonk on and draws a very detailed American map straight off the top of his head (even includes Alaska and Hawaii). We’d vote for that.
Essential Report redux and the perils of push polling
Possum Comitatus crunches all the data from the latest Essential Report and explains the problems with “push polls” and why good pollsters don’t use them.
Pollytrend: Coalition fading further
Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers from the last polling cycle. No surprises here: it’s a continued push upward for the Labor Party.
Territory set to sail uncharted constitutional waters
The upheaval in the Northern Territory government could result in the first constitutional test of Australia’s move to fixed-term Parliaments, says the ABC’s resident wonk Antony Green. Will the NT ALP sit it out until 2012, or play some tricky numbers games to wrangle an early election?
Unemployment by electorate
Possum Comitatus gets wonky with the latest jobless figures, breaking down unemployment by electorate in a handy series of colour-coded maps.
Jobs for wonks: do you want to work for Wayne or Malcolm?
The last two weekends’ career sections have thrown up some interesting job positions.
The West Wing of iPhone apps
Marc Ambinder runs down the top 10 Jesus Phone apps for Washington insiders.
iPhone apps for political wonks
Mashable rates the top 5 iPhone apps for political junkies.
What it takes to trigger an early election
Charles Richardson explains the nuts and bolts of triggering a double dissolution.
