Given that John Howard was, in 2007, the first prime minister to contest a marginal seat it could be argued that his defeat in this election was no particular humiliation for him — until I did some statistical tests on the Bennelong result, writes Malcolm Mackerras.
Swings
Brent: Who is the next Jackie Kelly?
Who is the next Jackie Kelly? And the next Danna Vale? Or put another way: which seats tomorrow will be the next Lindsay and Hughes? Peter Brent investigates.
Comitatus: State swings would deliver 102 ALP MPs
Today Newspoll delivers its State and demographic breakdown, and it’s a shocker for the Coalition. If these state swings were applied uniformly, they would deliver 42 seats to the ALP, with Qld and NSW delivering the seats by the bucket loads, writes Possum Comitatus.
Never mind Nielsen, Crosby/Textor had the death sentence
Last week, Crikey published the full Crosby/Textor internal Liberal polling and analysis that the Murdoch tabloids were banging on about. It’s a pity Rupert’s finest didn’t seem to understand a word of it when it was delivered into their hot little hands.
Market mayhem: when does correction become crash?
Crikey asked three economist how serious the subprime credit crisis could be come. ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake, and university-based economists Gary Twight and Adam Clements share their views.
