Polls apart from realityPolling by news organisations — a la the worm or a Herald Sun political poll — tells us absolutely nothing about an issue. Why must we renounce nuanced problems down to a yes/no answer? asks Scott Bridges.
Pollsters
Who’s the “best party to manage”? Who knows
The media loves when pollsters ask “best party/leader to manage” questions, but, as Possum Comitatus explains (via graphs and words like “Coefficient Value”), they don’t actually tell us anything.
Possum: Polling volatility is the new black
The latest Newspoll looks to be a more historically consistent result with all the metrics now back in lockstep, says Possum Comitatus. And while Rudd’s satisfaction has been down, a complimentary boost to Turnbull hasn’t eventuated.
Newspoll: ALP bounces back
The eagerly awaited Newspoll results are in: Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Meanwhile, the latest Essential report has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor so far.
Greens get the climate poll they paid for
The Greens recently commissioned a Galaxy poll on public opinion to the Government’s ETS and, surprise surprise says Andrew Norton: it found Australians want a more ambitious emissions target.
Newspoll: ??-??
After last week’s rogue Newspoll result, The Oz sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. Too bad they haven’t shared the results with the rest of Australia. Gary Morgan is unimpressed.
Possum: What if you were a pollster and produced an outlier?
What would you do if you ran a polling organisation that produced a result that was almost certainly an outlier? Would you publish? asks Possum. In some cases *cough*, pollsters are damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
The Newspoll numbers The Australian won’t print
The Australian appears to have decided to not publish the results of an opinion poll on voting intention in the wake of last week’s outlier that had Malcolm Turnbull gaining ground on Kevin Rudd.
Political snippets: In praise of Gary Morgan’s common sense
Richard Farmer wishes the Morgan Poll had the same influence on journalists as Newspoll does today, marvels at the literal expansion of Uganda, hugs some babies and takes a punt on the future of sports betting.
