The Coalition is much stronger with males while the ALP is much stronger with females — a complete reversal of the 2007 election result.
Polls
If Rudd’s a slave to opinion polls, then surely he’ll back down on RSPT
Recent polls indicate that if an election were held now Labor would be swept from office. If politics is like a giant game of rock, paper, scissors, to Kevin Rudd, opinion polls will always beat paper and rock.
Watson: Rudd’s poll dancing pulls all the right moves
Oh no, polling is at 50-50, suggesting Tony Abbott could win the next election and Rudd may be a one-term PM! Not quite. Time for a historical reality check, writes John Watson.
Labor arrests decline, says Morgan, but we’re divided on the RSPT
Today’s Morgan poll shows a small increase in Labor support, taking them back to 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis. But there was mixed news for the government on voters’ feelings about the RSPT.
It’s official: Aussies are boozehounds
Possum Comitatus rakes through new ABS stats on Australian alcohol consumption: on average, we’re each consuming about 806 standard alcoholic drinks a year.
Leaders attributes and the vote
What words do voters associate with Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott? And do they change depending on the party’s popularity at the time? Possum Comitatus investigates.
Essential: Trust and RSPT
This week’s Essential Report come in with a two-party preferred vote of 52-48 to Labor — a 2-point gain to the ALP — plus some interesting questions leader trustworthiness and the Resource Super Profits Tax.
Essential: Labor edges ahead
Last week’s traumas for the Liberal Party have only had a minor impact on voters, today’s Essential Research poll shows. A small lift in Labor’s primary vote, at the expense of the Liberals, has pushed Labor back out to a 52-48% lead. Labor’s once massive polling lead had collapsed to 50-50 in recent weeks, a […]
Leadership polling: a comprehensive rundown
Galaxy, Newspoll and Morgan have all recently released new polls pitting Rudd and Gillard head-to-head, showing Gillard is closing in. But underneath the headline figures, something else is going on, explains Possum Comitatus.
How Rudd blew it: finding ways to upset everyone at the same time
Kevin Rudd’s appeal lay in voters projecting what they wanted on to him. Now that trick isn’t working any more. He has to start sending his own signals about his Prime Ministership.
What’s wrong with Kevin?
Daily media wrap: Kevin Rudd and the ALP’s approval ratings took another big polling hit yesterday. The nation’s pundits weigh-in on who and what is to blame, and whether Julia Gillard could really prove the Party’s saviour.
Essential: The budget edition
Snap! It’s a polling trifecta today, with the latest Essential Report following Newspoll and Galaxy’s lead at 50-50. Plus additional questions on the budget reveal… most Australians don’t care, reports Possum Comitatus.
Essential: Labor has stopped the rot but still on level terms
The catastrophic fall in Labor’s vote has ended, according to Essential Media’s latest poll, but it remains stuck on a two-party preferred outcome of 50:50, and the Coalition is strengthening its primary vote.
So why is Kevin Rudd suddenly the problem?
Rudd’s appeal to voters has collapsed as spectacularly as Labor’s vote. Part one of Bernard Keane’s special report into what’s really behind Labor’s plummeting poll numbers.
Crikey Says: Rudd’s going nowhere, but Libs’ instability haunts
If Rudd can’t derail the Julia Gillard-for-PM bandwagon, the Labor Party could start looking a lot like the Liberal Party during its bitter Costello-Howard imbroglio years.
Essential Report: Joining the 50/50 club
This week’s Essential Report comes in with a two-party preferred of 50-50. Recent polls have come in as 51, 50, 50, 50 for the Coalition from Newspoll, Morgan, Nielsen and Essential, respectively. Spot the trend! says Possum Comitatus.
Nielsen: Revenge of the Malboro Man
The latest Nielsen poll has the two-party preferred vote now split at 50-50, while Rudd’s personal approval has sunk 14 points. So what’s got voters so down? asks Possum Comitatus: Smokes are up.
Nielsen: Rudd takes another battering
The latest Nielsen poll has the Rudd government hitting a new low, with the two-party preferred now split at 50-50, while Rudd’s personal approval has collapsed 14 points to 45%.
Morgan: 54-46 to Labor
The latest Morgan poll has failed to replicate the convulsion of Newspoll: Labor holds a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 54.5-45.5. Nevertheless, it’s still their worst Morgan result since November 2006, reports William Bowe
Cassidy: Rudd the poll dancer
Newspoll was an embarrassment for the government this week, but even more shameful was the level of spin put out by Rudd and co about why the polls were down. Voters aren’t morons, says Barrie Cassidy.
Newspoll: Abbott takes the lead
The latest Newspoll comes in with a two-party preferred vote of 51-49… to the Coalition! But is it backlash against Rudd’s ETS backflip, or just a rogue poll? asks Possum Comitatus.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition
The latest Newspoll has the Coalition taking a 51-49 lead on the two-party preferred vote — the first time any pollster has had them in front since 2006 — while Kevin Rudd’s preferred Prime Minister rating has fallen six points, reports William Bowe.
Essential: Shelved ETS divides, Rudd fails to conquer
Voters are split on whether the Federal Government’s move to dump the Emissions Trading Scheme before the next election was a good decision, with support for Kevin Rudd collapsing.
