The latest Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining imprevious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it, says William Bowe.
Polls
Poll: ETS too soft on big-business
This week’s Essential Report comes in with a two party preferred vote of 59-41 — a 1-point gain to the ALP — and also finds one-third of Australians think the government’s emissions trading scheme goes too far in favouring big business.
America’s belief in global warming plummets
The number of Americans who believe in global warming has dropped from 77% to only 57% in just two years, with the decline sharpest amongst independent voters and Republicans, according to a new Pew study.
Everything you need to know about big-P politics in four simple charts
Barely 10 years ago, the dynamics of the government/public relationship was such that the Prime Minister neither lifted nor depressed the party vote very much, says Possum Comitatus. But with the rise of PR-driven politics, just check out the charts now…
Possum: More pain for Malcolm
Over the last few months, the Opposition has played every card from the Howard era: rising interest rates, Labor’s debt, boat people — and yet it’s still suffering in the polls, with today’s Newspoll dealing another blow. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
Boat people can’t sink the ALP
This week’s Newspoll shows Labor’s lead widening to a two-party preferred vote of 59-41, despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals, reports William Bowe.
Hillary now more popular than Obama
A new Gallup poll has Hillary Clinton’s popularity at 62% while President Barack Obama’s is only sitting at 56%. Could these new figures see her consider another tilt at the Presidency?
graph pr0n The grey vote
The ‘Depression Era’ vote is the most electorally significant demographic for the Coalition, says Possum Comitatus. Without it, Howard would have lost in 1998, lost in 2001 and it would have been line ball in 2004. But when they die off, where will the votes come from?
Australians go green — fluro green
49% of Australians believe the government should consider nuclear power as a source of alternative energy — up from 38% only three years ago, a new Age/Nielsen poll reveals.
graph pr0n A new way of looking at the Coalition’s polling pain
While 100% of the Coalition’s time in opposition has been spent facing defeat, 90% of that time has been spent facing complete electoral oblivion, reports Possum Comitatus, with some new data-crunching insights.
A tale of two polls
A Morgan poll on Friday had Joe Hockey leading Malcolm Turnbull as voters’ preferred Liberal leader 30% to 21%, but today’s Newspoll has Turnbull back in the lead. Did the drama of last week produce a move to Turnbull — or away from Hockey? asks William Bowe.
Libs face an election massacre
The embattled Liberal Party’s own polling has predicted the party would face an absolute slaughtering if an election was called soon — and both Hockey and Turnbull would lose their seats.
Antony Green: A Higgins by-election preview
With Peter Costello retiring, his seat of Higgins will be up for grabs in a by-election. Antony Green wonks out on the polls and predictions: Will Labor field a candidate? Will Tim Costello run? Could we see a swing to the Greens?
Opposition leadership: what the polls say
With the current Coalition leadership shenanigans dominating the media space today, Possum Comitatus takes a look at the recent history of Liberal Party leadership polling.
Interest rates: the difference between reality and chatter
Amid the media chatter today about what the interest rate rise means for the “stimulus debate”, news from the real world is that the majority of Australians reckon the government is handling the economy very well.
Why politicians don’t respond to good evidence
When it comes to difficult issues like abortion, politicians often simply ignore perfectly solid and straightforward facts they disagree with, or keep looking until they find some that confirms their prejudices, says Eva Cox.
Essential Report: Voters get on board with Kevin 747
This week’s Essential Report asked questions this week on Kevin Rudd’s foreign affairs, finding Australians thought he did a bang-up job at the recent G20 and UN meetings, and reckon he’s putting up a good (if a little rotund) face for Australia in the international community.
A tale of two polls: Newspoll: 58-42, Essential: 60-40
Two polls released today tell a very sad story for the Coalition, a 3-point jump for the ALP in the latest Newspoll to 58-42, and a 1-point ALP increase in the latest Essential Report to 60-40.
Coalition support sinks
Malcolm Turnbull’s week keeps getting worse, with the latest Newspoll coming in at 58-42, a massive 3-point increase to the ALP. Plus Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating continues to surge, and public support his stimulus strategy is sitting at a huge 75%.
Which Coalition members are fighting for their life?
Possum Comitatus looks at how the new electoral redistributions have changed Australia’s political pendulum. Which Coalition members should start sweating?
Is Rudd responsible for Turnbull’s unpopularity?
What if Malcolm Turnbull’s poor polling had nothing to do with Turnbull himself? Possum Comitatus crunches the Coalition’s polling metrics and uncovers some bizarre results.
102 seat landslide for Labor
If a Federal election was held today, the ALP would most likely win a whopping 102 seats in Parliament — a 19 seat gain on their current position, says Possum Comitatus. Start panicking, Malcolm.
Big tick for Beazley/Nelson
appointments
This week’s Essential Report comes in with a two-party preferred vote of 59-41 -– a 1-point gain to the ALP — and finds Aussies give a thumbs-up to Brendan Nelson and Kim Beazley’s ambassadorial appointments.
Crikey votes: who should host the next Andrew Olle lecture?
Crikey utilised the highly scientific polling tool of Twitter to quiz readers on whether Chaser chief Julian Morrow really deserves to host the next Andrew Olle lecture, and if not, who should.
How long can rock star Rudd stay top of the pops?
Kevin Rudd is riding high on a wave of surging popularity. But a dip into the annals of Australian political history shows personal popularity doesn’t always translate into success in the one poll that actually matters, says Mark Davis.
