If an election was held today, Obama would loseWhat a difference a year makes: a new Rasmussen Reports survey has found that only 45% of Americans would vote for Obama if an election were held today.
Polls
Is Rudd’s honeymoon over?
Everyone today has an opinion or three on whether the latest Newspoll is the 47th end of the Rudd honeymoon or a polling outlier. The most likely answer is probably a bit of both.
Newspoll: Is this just a freak result?
The seven-point change in the latest Newspoll is a massive shift — has voter sentiment really been affected that much by the asylum seeker issue, or is this just a statistical anomaly? Possum Comitatus investigates.
Possum: The first big poll on asylum seekers
The long awaited polling on public perceptions of the asylum seeker issue is in, finding 52% think the Government is too weak on border protection and 66% support the decision to turn back boats. Possum Comitatus has more.
Newspoll: Labor’s lead slumps
Labor’s two-party preferred lead has dropped from 59-41 to 52-48 in the latest Newspoll, their smallest lead in almost two years.
Australia’s most hated brands
The 2009 Brand Asset Valuator study reveals Australia’s most popular brand names — which this year include Google, Nokia and Vegemite — but far more interesting are the brands we like the least, which include Grazia magazine and Aurora Coffee.
Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?
The ALP has been surging ahead in the polls of late, but Possum Comitatus has found a curious anomaly. Is it possible Labor’s vote is even higher than the headlines are suggesting?
Poll Bludger: Labor’s mega-lead remains impenetrable
The latest Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining imprevious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it, says William Bowe.
Poll: ETS too soft on big-business
This week’s Essential Report comes in with a two party preferred vote of 59-41 — a 1-point gain to the ALP — and also finds one-third of Australians think the government’s emissions trading scheme goes too far in favouring big business.
America’s belief in global warming plummets
The number of Americans who believe in global warming has dropped from 77% to only 57% in just two years, with the decline sharpest amongst independent voters and Republicans, according to a new Pew study.
Everything you need to know about big-P politics in four simple charts
Barely 10 years ago, the dynamics of the government/public relationship was such that the Prime Minister neither lifted nor depressed the party vote very much, says Possum Comitatus. But with the rise of PR-driven politics, just check out the charts now…
Possum: More pain for Malcolm
Over the last few months, the Opposition has played every card from the Howard era: rising interest rates, Labor’s debt, boat people — and yet it’s still suffering in the polls, with today’s Newspoll dealing another blow. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
Boat people can’t sink the ALP
This week’s Newspoll shows Labor’s lead widening to a two-party preferred vote of 59-41, despite the government’s recent discomfort over boat arrivals, reports William Bowe.
Hillary now more popular than Obama
A new Gallup poll has Hillary Clinton’s popularity at 62% while President Barack Obama’s is only sitting at 56%. Could these new figures see her consider another tilt at the Presidency?
graph pr0n The grey vote
The ‘Depression Era’ vote is the most electorally significant demographic for the Coalition, says Possum Comitatus. Without it, Howard would have lost in 1998, lost in 2001 and it would have been line ball in 2004. But when they die off, where will the votes come from?
Australians go green — fluro green
49% of Australians believe the government should consider nuclear power as a source of alternative energy — up from 38% only three years ago, a new Age/Nielsen poll reveals.
graph pr0n A new way of looking at the Coalition’s polling pain
While 100% of the Coalition’s time in opposition has been spent facing defeat, 90% of that time has been spent facing complete electoral oblivion, reports Possum Comitatus, with some new data-crunching insights.
A tale of two polls
A Morgan poll on Friday had Joe Hockey leading Malcolm Turnbull as voters’ preferred Liberal leader 30% to 21%, but today’s Newspoll has Turnbull back in the lead. Did the drama of last week produce a move to Turnbull — or away from Hockey? asks William Bowe.
Libs face an election massacre
The embattled Liberal Party’s own polling has predicted the party would face an absolute slaughtering if an election was called soon — and both Hockey and Turnbull would lose their seats.
Antony Green: A Higgins by-election preview
With Peter Costello retiring, his seat of Higgins will be up for grabs in a by-election. Antony Green wonks out on the polls and predictions: Will Labor field a candidate? Will Tim Costello run? Could we see a swing to the Greens?
Opposition leadership: what the polls say
With the current Coalition leadership shenanigans dominating the media space today, Possum Comitatus takes a look at the recent history of Liberal Party leadership polling.
Interest rates: the difference between reality and chatter
Amid the media chatter today about what the interest rate rise means for the “stimulus debate”, news from the real world is that the majority of Australians reckon the government is handling the economy very well.
Why politicians don’t respond to good evidence
When it comes to difficult issues like abortion, politicians often simply ignore perfectly solid and straightforward facts they disagree with, or keep looking until they find some that confirms their prejudices, says Eva Cox.
Essential Report: Voters get on board with Kevin 747
This week’s Essential Report asked questions this week on Kevin Rudd’s foreign affairs, finding Australians thought he did a bang-up job at the recent G20 and UN meetings, and reckon he’s putting up a good (if a little rotund) face for Australia in the international community.
A tale of two polls: Newspoll: 58-42, Essential: 60-40
Two polls released today tell a very sad story for the Coalition, a 3-point jump for the ALP in the latest Newspoll to 58-42, and a 1-point ALP increase in the latest Essential Report to 60-40.
