At least some of Julia Gillard’s declining popularity can be put down to a belief by many voters that she is a politician who stands for nothing but keeping the Prime Minister’s job.
Opinion polls
Personality politics and polling as gallery goes ape for Rudd
The worst traits of the Press Gallery were on display again this week as it got collectively excited about Kevin Rudd.
Political snippets: Why would anyone be surprised about the polls?
The media obsession with opinion polls continues
Political snippets: Why opinion polls don’t help us at all
Now that the federal election is getting closer the opinion polls mania is well and truly upon us. Plus, Kevin Rudd’s weight problem and the responsible BP and other political snippets.
Cox: The political risks of polling
Professional researcher Eva Cox explains why the importance and accuracy of opinion polls is over-rated — yet, once published, their results can be deeply damaging to society.
Westfield: Abbott is a chance, as Rudd runs out the clock on reform
The plunge in Labor’s opinion poll figures, and the corresponding recovery of the Tony Abbott-led coalition, has caught most pundits by surprise. Tony Abbott could win, writes former Malcolm Turnbull adviser Mark Westfield.
Climate change and polls, journalism and responsibility
New Nielsen polling has seen the media have a field day with the news that climate change is losing heat as a political issue — but is that really what the data says? Irving Saulwick and Denis Muller investiaget.
Abbott’s green army
Following Tony Abbott’s first big speech of his leadership last night, Possum Comitatus takes a squiz at the size of the public opinion hurdle he faces on his two chosen policy areas: water planning and the environment.
Essential Research: 58-42
The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 58-42 for the third successive week, and finds virtually no one in Australia believes anything will be achieved at Copenhagen, reports William Bowe.
As climate changes, Greens are the new black
The Greens may be the beneficiaries of the ALP and Liberals’ CPRS squabbling, with last week’s polls all showing a big boost to the party.
Australia grows sceptical about global warming
A new Morgan poll has found a growing level of scepticism towards global warming by Australians over the past 12 months, says Possum Comitatus — especially amongst regional and rural voters.
Newspoll: ??-??
After last week’s rogue Newspoll result, The Oz sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. Too bad they haven’t shared the results with the rest of Australia. Gary Morgan is unimpressed.
Possum: What if you were a pollster and produced an outlier?
What would you do if you ran a polling organisation that produced a result that was almost certainly an outlier? Would you publish? asks Possum. In some cases *cough*, pollsters are damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
The Newspoll numbers The Australian won’t print
The Australian appears to have decided to not publish the results of an opinion poll on voting intention in the wake of last week’s outlier that had Malcolm Turnbull gaining ground on Kevin Rudd.
Australians scathing over Rudd’s Timor Sea inaction
This week’s Essential Report comes in steady at 59-41, but Rudd’s approval rating has taken a hit. The poll also found 75% of Australians believe the Government would have done much more to prevent damage caused by the Timor Sea oil spill if it had happened somewhere like the the Great Barrier Reef.
Mungo MacCallum: Saint Kevin’s halo has finally slipped
If last week’s polling switch is really a result of the boat people kerfuffle, Rudd won’t be able to bluster and twitter his way out of it. So what does he have to do to win the voters back?
Asylum seeker polling: Nielsen, Newspoll and Essential
Possum Comitatus combines today’s Newspoll and Nielsen polls on asylum seeker issues with last week’s Essential Report. Voters do think Rudd’s policies are too soft, but it’s not the killer issue for the Coalition that it once was.
Milne: Rudd stays one step ahead of the pollsters
Kevin Rudd may have been on a media offensive last week after a poor Newspoll result, but the ALP hasn’t been panicking too much: its finger is firmly on the pulse of voter sentiment, and the party knows it’s outgunning the Opposition on almost every critical issue, writes Glenn Milne.
We are all polling experts now
The most plausible conclusion from recent polling is that last week’s Newspoll is an outlier, says Tobias Ziegler — but that hasn’t gotten in the way of a media narrative that says Rudd took a hit in the polls, most likely over asylum seekers.
New Morgan poll adds weight to Newspoll outlier theory
The latest Morgan poll has come in with a two party preferred vote of 61-39 — a half-point increase to Labor — making it even more plausible that the apparent drop in the ALP’s vote from the latest Newspoll is just an outlier.
Is Rudd’s honeymoon over?
Everyone today has an opinion or three on whether the latest Newspoll is the 47th end of the Rudd honeymoon or a polling outlier. The most likely answer is probably a bit of both.
Newspoll: Is this just a freak result?
The seven-point change in the latest Newspoll is a massive shift — has voter sentiment really been affected that much by the asylum seeker issue, or is this just a statistical anomaly? Possum Comitatus investigates.
Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?
The ALP has been surging ahead in the polls of late, but Possum Comitatus has found a curious anomaly. Is it possible Labor’s vote is even higher than the headlines are suggesting?
Poll Bludger: Labor’s mega-lead remains impenetrable
The latest Essential Research poll shows Labor’s mega-lead remaining imprevious to anything domestic or international push or pull factors might throw at it, says William Bowe.
Poll: ETS too soft on big-business
This week’s Essential Report comes in with a two party preferred vote of 59-41 — a 1-point gain to the ALP — and also finds one-third of Australians think the government’s emissions trading scheme goes too far in favouring big business.
