Who needs Newspoll when Crikey readers can predict the poll’s results? ABC Online readers’ lightweight tastes, and a judge rules that Scrabbl is a “game” — not a toy or a puzzle.
Newspoll
Political snippets: Who needs Newspoll?
Shanahan: Australians dissatisfied with Rudd’s boat bungles
Amid the Government’s stand-off with asylum seekers aboard the Oceanic Viking, Kevin Rudd’s dissatisfaction rating has risen to 34% — a 10-percentage point rise since 1 October and the highest since September last year, says Dennis Shanahan
Possum: Polling volatility is the new black
The latest Newspoll looks to be a more historically consistent result with all the metrics now back in lockstep, says Possum Comitatus. And while Rudd’s satisfaction has been down, a complimentary boost to Turnbull hasn’t eventuated.
Newspoll: ALP bounces back
The eagerly awaited Newspoll results are in: Labor bouncing from last fortnight’s 52-48 quirk to 56-44. Meanwhile, the latest Essential report has lurched from 59-41 to 55-45, the lowest lead for Labor so far.
ALP takes another hit in the polls — sort of
Maybe That Newspoll wasn’t an outlier after all: the latest Morgan poll has shown a 5-point drop to the ALP. But it was a small sample size. And a new Newspoll of QLD marginals shows a strong swing to the party. What does it all mean? Our heads hurt.
Political snippets: Adelaide’s panda diplomacy
Giant pandas Wang Wang and Fu Ni arrive in Adelaide Zoo, while zoos in India are about to set all their elephants free. Plus our “pick the Newspoll” competition.
Newspoll: ??-??
After last week’s rogue Newspoll result, The Oz sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. Too bad they haven’t shared the results with the rest of Australia. Gary Morgan is unimpressed.
Possum: What if you were a pollster and produced an outlier?
What would you do if you ran a polling organisation that produced a result that was almost certainly an outlier? Would you publish? asks Possum. In some cases *cough*, pollsters are damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
The Newspoll numbers The Australian won’t print
The Australian appears to have decided to not publish the results of an opinion poll on voting intention in the wake of last week’s outlier that had Malcolm Turnbull gaining ground on Kevin Rudd.
Political snippets: In praise of Gary Morgan’s common sense
Richard Farmer wishes the Morgan Poll had the same influence on journalists as Newspoll does today, marvels at the literal expansion of Uganda, hugs some babies and takes a punt on the future of sports betting.
The pollsters paradigm: the power of Newspoll
The Oz’s Newspoll has became the political poll of choice, often encouraging The Oz in its agenda setting. Yet, when last week’s poll indicated a substantial drop in Rudd’s popularity, Newspoll didn’t try to establish if it was an anomaly, writes Richard Farmer.
Newspoll and The Oz: a predictability problem
Last week’s negative Newspoll results in The Oz about Rudd’s leadership demonstrates how it’s not merely politicians who try to sell us narratives.
Mungo MacCallum: Saint Kevin’s halo has finally slipped
If last week’s polling switch is really a result of the boat people kerfuffle, Rudd won’t be able to bluster and twitter his way out of it. So what does he have to do to win the voters back?
Milne: Rudd stays one step ahead of the pollsters
Kevin Rudd may have been on a media offensive last week after a poor Newspoll result, but the ALP hasn’t been panicking too much: its finger is firmly on the pulse of voter sentiment, and the party knows it’s outgunning the Opposition on almost every critical issue, writes Glenn Milne.
We are all polling experts now
The most plausible conclusion from recent polling is that last week’s Newspoll is an outlier, says Tobias Ziegler — but that hasn’t gotten in the way of a media narrative that says Rudd took a hit in the polls, most likely over asylum seekers.
New Morgan poll adds weight to Newspoll outlier theory
The latest Morgan poll has come in with a two party preferred vote of 61-39 — a half-point increase to Labor — making it even more plausible that the apparent drop in the ALP’s vote from the latest Newspoll is just an outlier.
Grattan: Is this the end of the Coalition?
The Coalition is straining to stay together, as the Nationals — lead symbolically by Barnaby Joyce — try to forge their own identity separate to the Libs. But the Coalition would be better off staying together to fight Rudd, writes Michelle Grattan.
Bob Ellis: Newspoll is the Bill O’Reilly of statistics
Why do we believe Newspoll’s latest results? asks Bob Ellis. The pollster has been clearly inconsistent, isn’t forthcoming with its methodology and has no checks — yet we view it as an independent authority?
Don’t kid yourself Kev, it’s not just the refugees
Yesterday’s damning Newspoll result wasn’t just because of the government’s “tough but humane” rhetoric on asylum seekers. What about all the other stuff ups by the Rudd government like climate change, Timor Sea oil spill and supporting a corrupt Afghan government?
Eva Cox: Rudd losing high moral glow
There has been a lot of speculation about the causes of the big drop in the government’s popularity writes Eva Cox. Is it because it Kevin Rudd’s morals have disappeared and we see he’s just another expedient political animal?
Is Rudd’s honeymoon over?
Everyone today has an opinion or three on whether the latest Newspoll is the 47th end of the Rudd honeymoon or a polling outlier. The most likely answer is probably a bit of both.
Political snippets: A firm favourite at 2.30pm
The Crikey Interest Rate Indicator is still predicting a 0.25% rise today, today’s Newspoll looks a bit suss, and Chechnya’s race horse-owning President Ramzan Kadyrov takes aim.
Newspoll: Is this just a freak result?
The seven-point change in the latest Newspoll is a massive shift — has voter sentiment really been affected that much by the asylum seeker issue, or is this just a statistical anomaly? Possum Comitatus investigates.
Newspoll: Labor’s lead slumps
Labor’s two-party preferred lead has dropped from 59-41 to 52-48 in the latest Newspoll, their smallest lead in almost two years.
All smiles and sunshine for VIC Labor
The latest Victorian state Newspoll finds the decade-old Labor government going from strength to strength. Labor’s two-party lead is at 57-43. Is this the end for Ted Bailleu? asks William Bowe.
