If asylum seekers and the abandonment of a charter of rights hadn’t made it clear, the retreat on an ETS confirms this is not a government prepared to die in a ditch over matters of high principle.
Election polls
When big polling leads mean big election results
If we look back over the last 10 years or so of Federal and State politics, there’s been a number of examples where political parties have enjoyed large and consistent polling leads, Kevin 07 being the only exception. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
Is Rudd responsible for Turnbull’s unpopularity?
What if Malcolm Turnbull’s poor polling had nothing to do with Turnbull himself? Possum Comitatus crunches the Coalition’s polling metrics and uncovers some bizarre results.
How long can rock star Rudd stay top of the pops?
Kevin Rudd is riding high on a wave of surging popularity. But a dip into the annals of Australian political history shows personal popularity doesn’t always translate into success in the one poll that actually matters, says Mark Davis.
Essential Research: small slip for Labor
The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. Poll Bludger has the numbers.
Newspoll Tuesday: small rebounds
Today’s Newspoll comes in with a two party preferred of 55/45 — a 1-point gain to the Coalition since last fortnight. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
graph pr0n The Coalition Anxiety Thermometer
The current phone poll average shows a swing of 3.8% toward Labor. Which seats should the Coalition be really worried about if an election were called today?Possum charts the seats feeling the heat.
Morgan: Labor up after Utegate
The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42, says William Bowe.
Tony Abbott: chick magnet?
WTF? asks Possum Comitatus. The thing is, the Coalition needs Abbott to attract female voters. So can he?
Newspoll — on trend or undercooked?
Rather than behave like the other two polls this week, Newspoll has decided to throw a spanner in the works with a two party preferred of 53/47 — a two point drop for the ALP.
Newspoll: 53-47
The latest fortnightly Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since the election of the Rudd government, with Labor’s lead at 53-47.
Fear, not fraud, may have won it for Ahmadinejad
The votes of the 27% of swing voters predicted before the election didn’t necessarily go to Mousavi — if these Iranians were too intimidated to reveal their preferences to a pollster, they may also have been too intimidated to vote as they really pleased on Friday.
Signs of an ALP good news boost
Roy Morgan have released a new telephone poll, giving a two party preferred of 57.5/42.5 to Labor — a 2.5% increase to the ALP since the last poll.
Essential Report: economic impact edition
This week’s Essential Report deals with the personal impact of the GFC and comes in with a two party preferred of 56/44 — with Labor up 1 from last week.
Comitatus: The Australian centre left majority
Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers on the gap between each of the major party primary vote estimates and their respective two party preferred estimates.
Essential Report: Labor’s lead narrows
This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 49 (down 3) / 35 (up 3) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way.
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Morgan: ACNielsen’s errors are important … Turnbull and the leadership … Howard’s cheer leaders … ruckus in the tally room …. putting the family first … the 39 who didn’t want Kevin …
All steady in latest Morgan Poll
Opinion poll number three for the week is from Gary Morgan, and it confirms the other two. Labor’s two-party preferred vote is at 57.5% (Nielsen said 57%, Newspoll 56%); that’s a swing of about 10%, down 0.5% from the previous poll. The lead on primary votes is 48-37, compared to Nielsen’s 48-39 and Newspoll’s 46-39.
