There’s much to absorb about the state of the economy at the moment. And it’s more complex than many commentators are saying.
Economic forecasts
The Big Bank recalcitrance behind lower housing investment forecasts
Yesterday’s forecasts from Treasury spelt bad news for housing investment. The peak in housing approvals last year doesn’t appear to be translating into bricks and mortar.
Nouriel Roubini: The future of finance
Economist Nouriel Roubini discusses the European debt crisis, bailouts, his plan to rein in Wall Street greed, and why the first world could be headed for another fiscal trainwreck.
RBA lifts growth forecasts as economy on the up and up
The Reserve Bank has lifted its growth forecasts for the Australian economy and made it clear that interest rates will rise as the economy resumes its expansion.
Throwing the switch to recovery
Today’s new economic forecast means the Federal Government will finally have to stop saying things like we’re “not out of the woods yet” or have “a long way to go” and shift its rhetoric into recovery mode.
Swan: we are “fair dinkum” about sticking to our fiscal strategy
Wayne Swan has unveiled a significant improvement in the Government’s fiscal position from next year, with this morning’s Mid-Year Economic Forecasts showing far higher economic growth and lower unemployment than the Budget forecast back in May.
Farr: Glenn Stevens — the breakaway star of Australian finance
The rising star of “celebrity central banker” Glenn Stevens is overshadowing Treasurer Wayne Swan — the guy who’s supposed to be the authoritative voice on the nation’s economy. So who should voters listen to? asks Malcolm Farr.
Triguboff, Keane talking fiction on house prices
Billionaire Harry Triguboff’s pleas for the RBA not to raise interest rates today are informed by a massive conflict of interest: the longer Australia’s housing bubble continues, the more Triguboff can sell his apartments for.
Why we’re nowhere near out of the woods yet
Global share markets and federal banks are hailing the end of the recession — but they make a living out of telling people what they want to hear. Some other commentators are singing a very different tune.
Call that a deficit? THIS is a deficit
The Obama administration has estimated that US government deficit will reach $9 trillion over the next decade, while the Congressional Budget Office is only predicting $7 trillion. So what’s in a couple of trillion? asks the Christian Science Monitor.
VIDEO: Krugman: The US is in economic purgatory
Commentators must stop trying to view the economy in black and white terms, says Paul Krugman: the US is in neither economic heaven nor hell — it is in purgatory, with both the GDP and unemployment rising.
Recession? What recession?
The Reserve Bank now believes Australia will escape a recession, having lifted its 2009 growth rate from a contraction of 1% in the May Statement on Monetary Policy, to growth of 0.5%.
Newsweek: The recession is over!
“The recession is over” declares Newsweek… with one caveat: tough times are still ahead for Americans — GDP growth alone can’t feed a family or pay a mortgage, and the country will need a new strategy for recovery to make it happen.
Australia’s W-shaped recession
Access Economics thinks we have dodged the recession bullet, but a recovery based on growing business and consumer confidence might well be built on mass delusion, says En Passant.
Looking for organic growth among the green shoots
We have probably just had the best week of data on the global economy for a year, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
The road to recovery is a dead end
When will the recovery begin? Never, says Robert Reich: the current economy is outdated and cannot be salvaged. We need a new economy — one with an untwistable stomach.
Essential Report: 59/41
Another poll, another episode of death by increments in the vote estimates. This week’s Essential Report come in with a two party preferred of 59/41 — a 1-point increase for the ALP.
Good news from the OECD, not so bright in Europe
The European Central Bank injected a note of sobering reality into the lighter tone set by the OECD overnight, writes Glenn Dyer.
OECD: You’ll get yours, Australia
The Australian economy will not be spared from the GFC carnage, says the OECD. The body predicts the economy will shrink 0.4%, unemployment will climb to 8% and more.
Mag industry to make “modest” recovery
The magazine industry will recover “modestly” by 2013, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast, though things will probably get worse before they get better.
The letter that leaves Turnbull naked
Rudd has seized on an open letter from economists — saying Australia’s net debt will stay below 14% of GDP — to argue the Coalition’s counter-claims lack mainstream support, says Peter Martin.
What if Australia was never in recession?
Australia may become one of only three advanced economies known not to have gone backwards in the March quarter, joining Poland and Korea, writes Peter Martin.
Economic data puts Australia on the precipice
Business indicators fell in the March quarter, confirming expectations of a negative reading for first quarter growth.
Crikey Says: He who GDP speculates is lost
The sawtooth nature of recent economic data continues…
US stockmarket zombies snap out of it
Rising US bond yields have finally got the attention of stockmarket investors, triggering a reversal of Tuesday’s mindless surge in optimism and share prices, writes Glenn Dyer.
