Pollies of all stripes are backing away from promises of a surplus in the lead-up to the budget, plus other political views noted along the way.
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BUDGET SURPLUS
Essential: support for election call and ditching surplus
Voters quite like Julia Gillard’s decision to name the election date well in advance — but they still don’t want to vote for her, today’s Essential Report finds.
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Good riddance to a petty promise
The government’s promise to return a surplus this year was silly and made little economic sense, writes economist Professor John Quiggin. There are much more important issues to debate.
READ MOREAsk the economists: will Santa be kind to the economy for 2013?
With global economic forces looking threatening, what will 2013 bring for the Australian economy? Crikey intern Alex Burgess asks the economists to cast their predictions for the new year.
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A promise worth breaking: the surplus is slipping away
The government will need more cuts to protect its slim surplus, but is it really what the economy needs? The fetishism around returning to surplus is spooking business.
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Gillard mustn’t bruise a budget surplus
In light of favourable polls, Labor may be tempted to soften its budget stance. This would be a mistake, says Stephen Koukoulas of Business Spectator, not least because of the flow-on effect of higher interest rates.
READ MOREEU linkage shows where carbon pricing scheme really creaks
A link with the EU emissions trading scheme simply confirms a fiscal problem built into the government’s package all along.
READ MOREAsk the economists: does a surplus give the RBA cover?
Julia Gillard links the government’s surplus-driven budget to lower interest rates, arguing it will give the Reserve Bank cover for interest rate cuts. But what do economists think, asked Dylan Barber?
READ MOREBudget surplus: why everyone agreed to the wrong path
Wayne Swan’s 2012-13 budget will be Australia’s sharpest fiscal U-turn since the dramatic rebalancing of Treasury finances in 1951. And there’s no stopping the bipartisan approach, says Rob Burgess of Business Spectator.
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Debt v surplus: watch out, we’re going to have a crash
Cutting rates too far at the present time carries serious risks. And yet not cutting far enough will force business closures at the margins, writes Rob Burgess of Business Spectator.
READ MOREKohler: Swan’s budget heartbreak
If Treasurer Wayne Swan and Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson really do pull off a surplus in the 2012-13 budget it will be an incredible achievement.
READ MORESwan’s budget surplus risks pushing us into recession
To avoid recession, Australia will have to have growth of 3% to 4% over the next 18 months — which is possible, but no certainty.
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The danger of the ‘surplus we had to have’
Wayne Swan is in a pickle. Revised Treasury figures make his task of delivering a surplus for 2012/13 not just harder, but also much more dangerous, writes Rob Burgess.
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Stand by for the budget outrage
It’s going to be an interesting budget. Yesterday’s announcement of the early end of the solar hot water rebate scheme is an indication of that.
READ MOREEssential: majority say no need for a fast return to surplus
The latest Essential poll reveals that 71% of the population are against returning to surplus if doing so means “cutting services and raises taxes” and 58% believe there is no rush, reports William Bowe.
READ MOREBudget surplus fetish means more harsh spending cuts
If the government is serious about guaranteeing an excess of revenue over expenses, it must make spending cuts now, writes Adam Creighton, a research fellow at The Centre For Independent Studies.
READ MOREKohler: surplus stupidity and the case for delaying carbon tax …
We are about to get a lesson in the absurdity of political discourse: the government is going to be accused of “breaking a promise” if a global downturn prevents the budget from returning to surplus by 2013. Or if it delays the carbon tax.
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Essential: forget the surplus, voters say, and save us from cuts
Most voters would rather the federal government delay its back to black strategy and extend the deficit to stave off service cuts and tax hikes.
READ MOREKohler: the cost of our surplus obsession
The Australian Prime Minister is too worried about the fiscal balance and the US President is not worried enough.
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Gillard and the ministry for funny coats
What is it about politicians that they love to get into fancy dress whenever they make an appearance with members of the military?
READ MOREVan Onselen: Wong is prepared to slice and dice
If Julia Gillard is to make good on her promise to return the budget to surplus by 2012-2013 - and to maintain any notion of credibility she certainly needs to - the budget may have to take substantial cuts. That’s why she appointed Penny Wong as Finance Minister, writes Peter van Onselen.
READ MOREAsk the economists: a brief boom, and then what?
In its latest Budget Monitor, Access says that while commodity revenues will benefit the bottom line in the short term by a total of $6 billion, outstripping Treasury’s predictions, things could turn sour as prices inevitably tail off towards the middle of the decade. Crikey asked for a consensus.
READ MOREBrumby hailed as Mr Responsible as debt triples to $39b
With John Premier promising to triple Victorian state debt from $13 billion to $39 billion in the next six years, the best thing you can say about Victoria’s financial position is that all other states are worse off.
READ MOREReturning to surplus within six years is hopelessly optimistic
Rudd will not be able to honour his pledge to keep the budget in surplus over the next cycle, says Rowen Cross — and he has the figures to prove it.
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