For the first time, party vote breakdowns on smokers and non-smokers are available, helping explain the latest decline in the Labor vote: smokers are ALP voters. Possum Comitatus has the figures.
AC Neilsen
Climate change and polls, journalism and responsibility
New Nielsen polling has seen the media have a field day with the news that climate change is losing heat as a political issue — but is that really what the data says? Irving Saulwick and Denis Muller investiaget.
This week in political polling…
With two polls out this week, Labor is coming in with a two party preferred of 55.4%, while the phone pollster trend has broke below the 54% barrier for the first time under the Rudd. Possum Comitatus crunches the figures.
How at risk is your local member?
Now that we have the full spectrum of quarterly polling data from Newspoll and Nielsen, we can take a closer look at which seats would have been most likely to fall were an election held sometime over the last 3 months. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
New Year election simulation
Possum Comitatus takes quarterly Newspoll and Neilsen data and runs a stimulated federal election for the Oct-Dec period. It’s quite a win for the ALP, with 107 seats to the Coalition’s 40.
Newspoll and The Oz: a predictability problem
Last week’s negative Newspoll results in The Oz about Rudd’s leadership demonstrates how it’s not merely politicians who try to sell us narratives.
ACNielsen: weak results for Rudd, 53-47
The first post-budget poll has given Labor its second weakest poll result since the election of the Rudd government.
Twitter audience is exploding, but no-one’s sticking around
A study has found that over 60% of people who sign up to Twitter have stopped using the service a month later.
Housing affordability: too many immigrants, not enough houses
The reason for the housing “affordability crisis” in Australia is simple, that is, there are more people moving to Australia than there are dwellings being constructed.
Howard needs to do a Keating
The AC Neilsen finding this morning that Labor maintains a comfortable lead over the Coalition Government will have surprised no-one. Howard and his team need to get a hurry on, writes Richard Farmer.
