Margin: Labor 14.3%
Region: Northern Brisbane
Outgoing member: Neil Roberts (Labor)
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: Nudgee is located about 10 kilometres north of the city, immediately to the north of the airport. It runs from Toombul north through Virginia to Boondall, and from Chermside east to Nudgee Beach. The electorate was created at the 1960 election to accommodate post-war suburban growth and has always been safe for Labor, even amid the bloodbath of 1974. Its members have been John Melloy (1960 to 1977), Ken Vaughan (1977 to 1995) and Neil Roberts (1995 to present). Roberts completed a slow rise to the front bench in July 2007, and has served as Police, Emergency Services and Corrective Services Minister throughout the past term. In December he became the eighth Labor MP to announce he would not be contesting the coming election. He will be succeeded as Labor candidate by one of his ministerial advisers, Leanne Linard, who previously worked for Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser. A local resident and colleague of Roberts in the Labor Unity faction, Linard won preselection without opposition.
In the final week of the campaign, the Courier-Mail reported that what appeared to be Labor push-polling had been conducted to sow doubts in voters’ minds about the influence of big business and developers. What is particularly of interest is that it has been happening in Nudgee, Labor’s ninth-safest seat. Both Anna Bligh and the party’s state secretary, Anthony Chisholm, denied knowledge of the polling, which has reportedly been conducted by market research firm Ask Australia.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.