Margin: Labor 12.2%
Region: Brisbane Bayside
Outgoing member: Paul Lucas (Labor)
Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland map
Electorate analysis: Lytton covers the Wynnum-Manly area south of the Brisbane River mouth, about 10 kilometres east of the city. Labor is strongest at coastal Manly and weakest further inland at Wynnum West. The electorate was created from traditional Labor territory at the 1972 election and has had only two members: Tom Burns, who was Opposition Leader from 1974 to 1978 and Deputy Premier in the Wayne Goss government, and Paul Lucas, who succeeded Burns when he retired shortly after Labor lost office in February 1996. Lucas rose to cabinet after the 2004 election and to the deputy premiership when Peter Beattie departed in September 2007, eventually announcing his intention to retire in September 2011.
Labor’s new candidate is Daniel Cheverton, a 28-year-old former policy adviser to cabinet minister and Ipswich MP Rachel Nolan who now works for an engineering company. Cheverton won preselection ahead of Peter Cumming, Wynnun Manly ward councillor on Brisbane City Council and Left faction member, who made headlines when he wrote to preselectors: I am a realist and expect Labor to lose the state election. Another aspirant was Steven Beckett, deputy chief-of-staff to Anna Bligh, husband of Brisbane council opposition leader Shayne Sutton and a member of the Labor Forum/AWU faction, but he withdrew shortly after Michael McKenna of the Courier-Mail reported the demise of a deal which would have given him the backing of Labor Unity in exchange for Treasurer Andrew Fraser being given a clear run to succeed Lucas as deputy leader.
The LNP’s candidate is Neil Symes, a 22-year-old community engagement officer at the Acacia Ridge and Districts Community Centre.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.