Electorate analysis: Recreated at the 2001 election after previously existing between 1986 and 1992, Glass House is named for the mountain range about 90 kilometres north of Brisbane which dominates it. It was won by the Nationals in 1986 and Labor in 1989, and had a notional Nationals margin of 4.3 per cent going into the 2001 election. Labor’s Carolyn Male won on that occasion with a 13.9 per cent swing and suffered only minor corrections in 2004 and 2006, before redistribution fundamentally altered it by transferring Labor-voting areas of Caboolture to Pumicestone in the south and Landsborough to Caloundra in the east. Compensating gains came from conservative-voting areas in the north and west: from Eudlo west to Obi Obi from Nicklin, and Cedarton south through Woodford to Mount Mee from Nanango. The changes reduced Labor’s 7.7 per cent margin to precisely zero, prompting Carolyn Male to jump ship for the new seat of Pine Rivers. Male originally sought endorsement for the new seat of Morayfield, and it appeared she would have to stand and fight in Glass House in the likely event that she proved unable to defeat rival preselection aspirant Mark Ryan. The impasse was resolved when Linda Lavarch, whose seat of Kurwongbah had effectively been replaced by Pine Rivers, decided not to contest the election, and Male went there instead.
Glass House meanwhile was contested for the LNP by Andrew Powell, who comfortably secured the seat on the back of a 5.8 per cent swing. Powell had variously worked for the Department of Defence in Canberra, the Department of Premier and Cabinet and the Department of Child Safety, and was promoted to the front bench as Shadow Environment Minister when Campbell Newman became leader in March 2011. His Labor opponent at the coming election is 19-year-old Maleny university student Ryan Moore.
Analysis written by William Bowe. Please direct corrections or comments to pollbludger-AT-crikey.com.au. Read William’s blog, The Poll Bludger.