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22/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 2
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The final cumulative Newspoll has arrived and two things have become crystal clear; the Coalition is heading for an absolute thumping and the Narrowing over the election campaign is a complete fairytale, writes Possum Comitatus.
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21/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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When Andrew Robb first went to the Google homepage in search of ALP candidate bios, did he press “Advanced Search”, or did he just go straight to the button marked “I’m Feeling Lucky”, muses Possum Comitatus.
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20/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 2
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It’s the last Tuesday Newspoll of the campaign, and the second last Newspoll before election day itself and the big story is the same old story that’s been going on for months: The polls don’t move, writes Possum Comitatus.
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16/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 1
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The cumulative breakdowns of the last two Newspolls have been released and what is interesting between the headline result and the state based figures is the different number of seats they suggest would fall, writes Possum Comitatus.
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15/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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There are generally two types of politicians; those that do the Batman thing and wear their duds on the outside of their pants, and those that don’t. But Rudd has invented a third type of politician – the political freeballer that wears no duds at all, writes Possum Comitatus.
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12/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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"The Narrowing" is surging strongly, placing the Coalition within reach of victory on or about the 28th July 2008, writes Possum Comitatus.
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9/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 2
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The key to understanding the way “the economy” seems to be working as an issue in this election is to not to fall into the trap of seeing it as a single holistic thing, writes Possum Comitatus.
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5/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 1
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While all the policy noise and political advertising fills the political brainspace of the nation, when it comes right down to it, this election is still all about John Howard, writes Possum Comitatus.
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2/11/2007 12:00:00 AM 2
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The state of the minor party vote often gets ignored these days with commentary focusing on the large ALP and not so large Coalition primary votes. Yet, the decline of the minor party vote since the 2004 election makes has some pretty profound consequences for the final two-party preferred result at the coming election.
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29/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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Today we’ll look at the Coalition held seats in Qld through the prism of the specific demographic swings revealed in the infamous Crosby Textor Oztrack 33 Research, writes Possum Comitatus.
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26/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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The greatest problem with the “my interest rates were lower than yours” argument is that it is simply a grand non-sequitur, writes Possum Comitatus.
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24/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 1
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The “It’s Time” factor seems to be on the tips of politically fashionable lips everywhere at the moment, but what is interesting with the whole “It’s Time” thing is the underlying dynamics of it that have been going on over the last 6 years or so, writes Possum Comitatus.
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23/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 6
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Sometimes, when your luck has run out, you just can’t take a trick. Today’s Newspoll, with a healthy sample of 1706 provides more evidence of impending annihilation. The ALP primary vote is up 3 to 51, while the Coalition is down 1 to 38 for an overall TPP of 58/42 to the ALP, writes Possum Comitatus.
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19/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 1
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Round one of the campaign polling season is upon on us, with the Coalition starting strongly, the ALP looking mildly bewildered and the minor parties apparently having better things to do, reports Possum Comitatus.
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17/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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The great problem for political parties that find themselves in government is how to reconcile the interests of their core seats that make up the organisational lifeblood of the party, with their non-core seats that provide the governing majority. Possum Comitatus writes.
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16/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 3
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Since the last election, the 18-30 demographic has turned decidedly nasty for camp conservative, writes Possum Comitatus.
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15/10/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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Please polling gods, let it not be like this for the next 6 weeks. After one day of the election campaign we have three polls. If this keeps up, we’ll have 126 of the buggers during the campaign – more than even the most avid pollyjunkie could bear.
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10/09/2007 12:00:00 AM 0
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Last week, Crikey published the full Crosby/Textor internal Liberal polling and analysis that the Murdoch tabloids were banging on about. It’s a pity Rupert’s finest didn’t seem to understand a word of it when it was delivered into their hot little hands.