Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark.
Articles by Possum Comitatus 
Possum: betting agencies moving in the ALP direction
This week saw the betting markets move strongly to Labor by about 4.5% on the aggregate implied probability of victory, with all agencies moving in the same direction.
Possum: gender shifts and voter churn
How have the gender breakdowns been tracking so far in the campaign?
Possum Comitatus: betting market round up
We’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time.
Possum: Morgan Polliegraph leaders debate cross tabs
What makes the Polliegraph a more interesting version of real-time reaction tracking than many of its competitors?
Possum: what size the ALP vote hit from closing rolls early?
When Julia Gillard announced August 21 as the election date rather than August 28, one of the consequences was that the electoral roll closed a week earlier than it ordinarily could have — providing very little time for younger voters to get themselves on the roll.
Possum: Newspoll and some more gender gaps
The big shock is Newspoll, coming in with the primaries running 42 (steady), 38 (down two) to Labor, washing out into a two-party preferred of 55/45 the same way — a two-point gain to the Labor party since the last Newspoll.
Possum: Gillard factor means polls doing the splits down gender lines
The Coalition is much stronger with males while the ALP is much stronger with females — a complete reversal of the 2007 election result.
What would a proper regional solution look like?
There was a lot of predictability in the responses to yesterday’s Gillard speech and policy proposals on asylum seekers, at least as far as the broader commentariat were concerned. Much of it was lazy, writes Possum Comitatus.
Possum: first polling of the Gillard era is in
All eyes are on the better/preferred PM beauty contest. Possum Comitatus crunches the numbers.
Possum: party polling suggests Rudd’s popularity was dire
While the most recent polls had Rudd in an election-winning lead, ALP party polling must have told a different story.Possum Comitatus looks at the numbers.
Possum: public perceptions of media, bias and accuracy
This week’s Essential Report had an interesting set of questions on public perceptions of influence and trust as they apply to a number of various groups in Australia, one being the media.
Possum: Lowy poll — climate change and public hypocrisy
The Lowy Institute has released its annual Lowy Poll, which mostly focuses on various aspects of foreign policy-related public opinion. We’ll go through the broader poll a little later, but first up it’s worth going through the responses to a set of global-warming questions they asked — and in some instances, have asked over several years. This […]
Possum: Leaders’ attributes and the vote
As you may remember, Essential Report runs a semi-regular set of questions that measure public perceptions on various attributes of political leaders — from positive attributes such as trust and visionary through to negative attributes such as arrogant and superficial. Over the past two-and-a-half years, the following question has been asked six times about the coalition leader […]
The most important chart in the Budget
Tucked away in Budget paper No.1 is a fascinating little chart that is arguably the most politically important piece of data in the entire Budget, as it justifies not just the very existence of the stimulus program and the political baggage that is coming with it, but also shows the likely consequences of the alternative […]
Comitatus: I’ll see you a coward and raise you an ETS idiot
No amount of ifs, buts, bitching & moaning or political hallucinations will change the reality: this term the ETS is dead.
Possum: How much money do our top public servants make?
Ever wondered what our Federal MPs, High Court judges and top federal public servants are earning? As it turns out: a lot less than they did 70 years ago.
Polligraph Debate Drilldown: Men, not women, are Abbott’s problem
It was men, not women, really cranking the dial hard towards “no” during Tony Abbott’s performance in last week’s health debate, according to Roy Morgan Reactor demographic breakdowns.
PolliGraph Debate Drilldowns. Part 1: The Overview
The owner of the Morgan Reactor technology that powered Channel Seven’s PolliGraph — has shared respondent level data with Pollytics and Crikey.
Possum: the inside info on audience response and “The Worm”
You might have seen the health debate yesterday. You may have noticed, apart from how truly tragic you were for doing such a thing, was how the two tracking lines behaved very, very differently.
Possum: how we missed the boat with SBY
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was here to talk about development co-operation, security and intelligence sharing and international economic partnership. What did we bang on about? Boat people. Let’s look at the facts.
Possum: Rudd faces privatisation blight in Queensland
Will a backlash against Anna Bligh threaten to spill across into the federal election arena later this year?
Possum: why we spend more and like the government less
It used to be that consumer confidence was tied to support for the government. But of late it seems the more we spend, the less we like the government.
Possum: risk and incompetence in an insulated media
The insulation scheme was shut down and the jobs of at least 5000 people and the immediate living standards of another 12-15,000 family members got sent down the toilet because journalists were incompetent.
Possum: Labor better off net in primary vote stakes
What is happening now with these relatively low Labor primaries about 40 of late is the same thing that actually caused Kevin Rudd to overthrow Kim Beazley for the leadership.
